Task force plans how to deal with pandemic scenario

Dead and dying Cape Girardeau County residents. Lots of them.

That's the nightmare that would face Cape Girardeau County health and emergency preparedness officials in a pandemic flu outbreak.

The Cape Girardeau County Infectious Disease Task Force met for an hour Friday at the county health center to talk about the need for a well-coordinated plan to educate the public about the disaster scenario.

The prospect of hundreds of deaths in a short time in Cape Girardeau County isn't unrealistic, said Dr. John Russell, medical director for the Cape Girardeau Pediatric Rural Health Clinic at the county health center.

During the 1918 flu epidemic, which killed 50 to 100 million people worldwide and 550,000 in the United States, Cape Girardeau recorded an average of four deaths per day for three months.

With today's population, the death toll would be even higher. "We could see as many as 40 deaths a day for a couple of weeks," Russell said.

Hundreds could be hospitalized. "It is a real possibility," he warned.

Dr. Ed LeValle, an infectious disease specialist in Cape Girardeau, told the task force that flu epidemics have occurred repeatedly throughout history and will continue to do so. "There will be another flu pandemic at some point," he said.

Today's threat is avian flu, which in two years has spread from poultry flocks in China across Asia, Europe and Africa. The disease is transmitted easily among birds, including wild birds. Avian flu can be passed to humans and can be deadly.

Of 250 cases reported worldwide, 141 fatalities have resulted, Russell said.

This year, Indonesia looks like the hot spot for avian flu, LeValle said, but he predicted birds at some point will carry the disease to the United States. "It will be here in birds in months if not years," he said.

Russell said health and emergency personnel can't count on outside agencies to step in during a pandemic flu outbreak. "If the whole world is sick, you take care of yourself," he said.

Charlotte Craig, director of the county health center, said families need to be prepared for such a disaster. "The cavalry doesn't exist in this case," she said.

A new Medical Reserve Corps unit, just established in Cape Girardeau County, could help the area handle a pandemic, Craig said after the meeting. Twenty-two people have signed up to serve with the unit, which consists of volunteer medical professionals and others willing to respond to emergencies.

Major emergencies can overwhelm the capabilities of local medical services during the first 12 to 72 hours, Craig said. The volunteer corps can help fill in the gaps.

Those who want to join the unit should contact the county health center, she said.

At the task force meeting, David Hitt, director of emergency operations for Cape Girardeau County, questioned whether local governments could operate if 40 percent of their work force were sick with the flu.

mbliss@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 123

Cape Girardeau County Coroner John Clifton said that in such a disaster, some parents -- even if they aren't ill -- will choose to stay home with their families as a precaution rather than risk exposure by coming to work. "A lot of people would stay home," he said.

mbliss@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 123