SKY'S THE LIMIT: CAPE GIRARDEU AREA SHOWS GROWTH POTENTIAL

The Cape Girardeau area shows good growth potential, a nationwide study shows.

The Cape Girardeau area ranked 53 among 183 micropolitan areas nationwide, according to a survey by the American City Business Journals.

American City publishes business journals in 35 cities across the country, including the St. Louis Business Journal.

Jefferson City ranked 33rd. It was the only Missouri city to place in the top 50. The survey placed Warrensburg in the 88th spot.

But Cape Girardeau's business and economic development officials advised against putting too much stock in the study.

"I don't think this gives an accurate picture. The more accurate picture would put us higher up on that list," said Buz Sutherland, director of the Small Business Development Center at Southeast Missouri State University.

The survey looked at population growth, per capita income and population density.

A micropolitan area is defined as a city with a population of 15,000 to 50,000 and its surrounding area, usually the county.

The entire micropolitan area has to have a population of 40,000 or more.

But in looking at the Cape Girardeau area, the survey didn't include Scott City.

Sutherland said the northern Scott County area should have been included in the survey because it is part of the Cape Girardeau economic region.

Mitch Robinson, executive director of the Cape Girardeau Area Industrial Recruitment Association, agreed.

"It is one economic community," he said. He said city and school district lines often don't mean much when it comes to where people work and shop.

Still, he and other economic development officials said the survey clearly shows that the Cape Girardeau area is growing.

Cape Girardeau had an annual population growth of 1.03 percent from 1990 to 1996, the survey showed. That lagged behind the growth rate in Jefferson City and Warrensburg, but was slightly above the national average.

Chamber of Commerce President John Mehner said a growing population is good news.

"I would say between 1 to 2 percent is good, steady growth," said Mehner. "That's positive."

Mehner said good paying jobs help attract people to the area.

The Cape Girardeau area ranked ahead of both Jefferson City and Warrensburg in per capita income growth between 1993 and 1995.

The Cape Girardeau area had a per capita income growth of nearly 12 percent, well above the national rate of 9.3 percent.

The survey also looked at population density. The Cape Girardeau area had 114 people per square mile in 1996.

G. Scott Thomas is research coordinator for the journals. He said an ideal density is 50 to 100 people per square mile.

But he said population density isn't a problem in areas like Cape Girardeau.

It is a concern in metropolitan areas, said Thomas, whose office is in Buffalo, N.Y. "Once you get past 1,000 people per square mile your potential for further growth really drops off," said Thomas.

Population growth was the largest component, accounting for about half of a city's ranking. Income accounted for another 30 percent of the score and density, 20 percent.

The density score was pretty uniform among cities, he said.

The survey was designed to show areas that have "the most momentum for current growth" and available space for future growth, he said.

"People in business are looking for markets that are growing," said Thomas.

America's economic power isn't concentrated just in major cities and their suburbs. Thomas said the nation's nonmetropolitan areas are economically strong and getting stronger.

Some 53 million Americans lived in non-metropolitan areas in 1995, up 5 percent from 1990, he said.

The survey ranked Utah's Saint George community first among micropolitan areas.

The St. George area in southwestern Utah has experienced an annual growth rate of 6.8 percent since 1990. The area's population stood at just over 73,000 in July 1996.

Sutherland said it is difficult to compare Cape Girardeau's per capita income to that of Jefferson City, which is the state capital.

Many of Jefferson City's residents are employed in state government jobs, which pay well, he said.

"If industries want to come to an area and salaries are too high, that is a negative," Sutherland said.

Employers want to locate in areas where they can afford to pay competitive salaries, he said.

But Sutherland said per capita income doesn't tell an employer what the going wage rate is for a factory worker in that area.

"I think without question you have to look at other salary and income data," he said.

Robinson said per capita income is important to retailers who want to locate in areas where there are customers who have sufficient income to buy their products.

Despite the survey, Robinson views Cape Girardeau as having a stronger economy than Jefferson City.

He said the economy of Jefferson City is heavily dependent on one industry -- state government. Cape Girardeau's is more diversified.

Robinson said the importance of surveys is largely in the publicity that they generate for cities.

If Cape Girardeau had finished first in the survey, Robinson said that his office and the chamber would have trumpeted the results for marketing purposes.