QUAKE, RATTLE AND ROLL: REGION'S RESIDENTS NOT SHOOK UP BY EARTHQUAKE THREAT

The region's residents no longer talk about a killer quake.

Iben Browning's doomsday prediction of a major earthquake along the New Madrid Fault is ancient history. What people remember is that there was no shake, rattle or roll on Dec. 3, 1990, the predicted date for disaster.

The region's residents simply aren't too shook up these days about the possibility of a major earthquake along the New Madrid Fault.

That is one of the conclusions of a study by Dr. John Farley, a sociology professor at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville.

Farley has written a book titled "Earthquake Fears, Predictions and Preparations in Mid-America."

Reached by telephone at his campus office, Farley said there has been little publicity in recent years about earthquake preparedness in the region and suggested a new public information campaign should be launched.

The news media need to help get the word out about what the general public can do to prepare to deal with an earthquake.

"I know in the media business there is nothing less interesting than yesterday's news," said Farley, "but the fact is that a damaging earthquake is tomorrow's news."

Farley found news coverage of the earthquake risk along the New Madrid Fault has dropped off substantially since December 1990.

The Southeast Missourian and newspapers in St. Louis and Memphis have run few stories on the issue in recent years.

In contrast, news stories about earthquake risks and preparedness was heavy in 1989 and 1990, spurred on by the World Series earthquake in California and the Browning prediction, Farley said.

It is important for the public to be prepared for a major earthquake in this region, he said.

"Earthquakes aren't like hurricanes or even tornadoes," he said. It occurs without warning.

"People have to prepare ahead of time," he said.

Farley's study included four telephone surveys of St. Louis, Cape Girardeau and Sikeston area residents between October 1990 and May 1993.

In October 1990, 582 people were surveyed. Fifty-one percent said an earthquake was "very likely" in the next 10 to 15 years.

By February 1991, a few months after the doomsday date came and went without incident, only 34.6 percent of the respondents felt an earthquake was "very likely" in the next 10 to 15 years.

By May 1993, less than 11 percent of St. Louis area residents surveyed were "very concerned" about the risk of an earthquake. In Cape Girardeau, only 20 percent expressed strong concern. In Sikeston, one in four viewed a similar level of concern.

Dave Hitt, director of the Cape Girardeau County Emergency Management Agency, said area residents have told him they no longer stockpile food. "A lot of them have let their earthquake supply kits deteriorate," he said.

Mark Winkler of the State Emergency Management Agency agreed. "People aren't as prepared now as they were," said Winkler, who serves as coordinator for SEMA in the Southeast region.

Typically, public preparedness for emergencies goes in cycles, he said.

"The times were just right in 1990 to get preparedness on the forefront of everyone's mind," Winkler said.

The "hysterical interest" has disappeared, but that doesn't mean earthquake preparedness has vanished.

Winkler and Hitt said cities, counties and government agencies are better prepared today to deal with a major earthquake in the region than they were eight years ago.

New schools have to meet seismic regulations designed to make them safer in the event of an earthquake. New homes typically are bolted to the foundation.

State law mandates schools in high-risk earthquake areas like Southeast Missouri hold earthquake drills.

Winkler said such drills will help future generations better prepare for earthquakes. "If these kids learn these things, they are going to stick in their heads," he said.

Last year, fire, police and other emergency officials from Cape Girardeau County participated in a mock earthquake disaster drill in Jefferson City.

Hitt said, "There has been a lot more training, a lot more exercises."

The Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri State University has stepped up its efforts in the last few years to educate the public about earthquake risks.

In fiscal 1997, center staff made 84 presentations to schools and other groups. So far, this fiscal year, there have been 98 presentations, including 49 in February.

Ann Elledge, the center's earthquake education specialist, regularly makes presentations.

Elledge said she thinks the message is getting out.

That message could prove more forceful later this year when the center gets an earthquake simulator.

The device will be installed in the basement of the former home that houses the earthquake center. By standing on the circular device, people can feel the shaking that would occur in earthquakes of different magnitudes, Elledge said.

But no amount of simulators or disaster exercises can totally prepare the region for a devastating quake.

Said Hitt, "You can never be totally prepared for a major earthquake."