PROFESSORS ANTICIPATE TOUGH WINTER

The new Commonwealth of Independent States faces rough going this winter in contending with food shortages made worse by a poor transportation system, say two political science professors.

Within the past three years, Southeast Missouri State University professors Peter Yaremko and Rick Althaus separately have visited the former Soviet Union.

"It's going to be very tough, very painful," said Althaus, who has twice visited Moscow, the last time in January 1990 as a participant in the Model United Nations.

For Yaremko, there's a personal side to the economic woes of the former Soviet republics.

His 64-year-old brother and his brother's family live in the Ukraine, about 250 miles west of Kiev near the border with Poland.

Yaremko visited portions of the Ukraine and Russia in August 1989, returning to his homeland for the first time in 45 years.

The political science professor grew up in Poland, but was evacuated with his family in May 1944. The area was subsequently occupied by the Soviets and became part of the Ukrainian republic.

Yaremko said that food supplies are more plentiful in the Ukraine, the agricultural center of the commonwealth. But he said, "Right now even in the Ukraine, the food situation is not good.

"Some people are already spending 100 percent of what they are making on food, and some are dipping into their savings," he said.

With Russia and other republics moving toward a free market economy, food prices could double and triple, Yaremko said.

"What is going to happen is you are going to have a very serious food shortage in St. Petersburg, Moscow and some of the industrial centers," he said.

"In the past, food distribution in the Soviet Union was feudal cities being surrounded by farms, which supplied them with food," explained Yaremko.

As a result, he said, the commonwealth is saddled with "an extremely poor distribution system" and no real stockpiles of food to draw upon.

"Their infrastructure is shot," said Althaus. "Their transportation system is bad."

Yaremko said Soviet agriculture was based on collective farms. "The average farm is between 5,000 and 10,000 people. It's like a village," he said.

The collective farming system adds to the problem of developing a free market system, he said.

At this point, the former Soviet republics are striving to stay afloat.

"It's not a matter of trust so much as a matter of hoarding," said Yaremko. "Now that the Soviet Union has broken up, it's each republic for itself."

But he said, "I have been pleasantly surprised that they have accomplished as much as they have in military matters because it is extremely difficult to find a common denominator among the republics."

He said the republics have different interests, outlooks, histories and aspirations.

The former Soviet Union comprises an area 2 times the size of the United States, encompassing 11 time zones.

The 11 former Soviet republics in the commonwealth recently established a permanent joint command over the 27,000 former Soviet nuclear warheads, and reached a compromise on other military issues.

"I think it will be very challenging," said Althaus, pointing out that the commonwealth comprises numerous ethnic groups.

Althaus maintained that "the more homogeneous the population, the more centralized the government is likely to be. The more diverse the population, the less you can agree on.

"The only thing that has been able to hold that diverse population together up until now is the Communist Party and the centralized control in Moscow," said Althaus.

Yaremko said he doesn't believe the bleak economic conditions will improve in the near future.

"My impression is that you are not going to get economic improvement until you get political stability," he said. "From that point of view, I don't see any reason for optimism in the near future."

The bleak situation is exasperated by a poor work ethic, Yaremko explained.

Under the old, centralized economic system, there were no incentives for work, and now with the collapse of that system there is no stability, he said.

Yaremko said he doubts U.S. or international aid can be provided on a sufficient scale to be of any help over the next six months.

He said western nations should have had an aid plan in place.

"I think the United States and western Europe should have prepared for this contingency because the Soviet economy has been declining for the last decade," said Yaremko.

Still, Yaremko made it clear he's glad to see the demise of the communist system.

"I'm happy in the sense that the old system fell apart. My idea on the subject is that the old system collapsed under its own weight," he said.

Althaus said the commonwealth is less powerful than a confederation, but may serve as a transition to a new government.

"I am optimistic for the long term," he said. "I think this has the potential for being a kind of transition, but I think the key to it is keeping domestic peace and order.

"If somehow they can maintain relative domestic peace and stability, then I think they will move toward more integration (among the republics)," said Althaus.

"I think if the outside world will provide some short-term emergency assistance, and, at least as importantly, some long-term economic and technical development advice, I think that will go a long way toward helping the situation," Althaus said.