The Missouri Legislature may win the veto showdown with Gov. Mel Carnahan over an anti-abortion bill.
If so, the outcome could hinge on the votes of half a dozen state senators, including Sens. Jerry Howard of Dexter and Danny Staples of Eminence.
That's the view of state Sen. Peter Kinder, R-Cape Girardeau.
The veto session starts Sept. 15 and could last several days.
Veto sessions typically are much-ado-about-nothing in Missouri. Rarely have lawmakers overridden governors' vetoes.
Only six vetoes have been overridden in the state's history. Usually, they amount to little more than legislative reunions.
But this year could well be different, Southeast Missouri lawmakers say.
Kinder said all 16 Republican senators will vote to override Carnahan's veto of the anti-abortion bill.
The Senate's 18 Democrats, include six who are opposed to abortion, six who support it, and six who aren't solidly in either camp. The latter includes Staples and Howard.
"We need only one of six swing senators to override the veto," Kinder said.
Neither Howard nor Staples returned a reporter's telephone calls Friday.
Rep. Patrick Naeger, R-Perryville, said he expects all 76 Republicans in the House will vote to override the governor's veto.
Carnahan vetoed the bill that would have created the crime of infanticide for performing certain abortions.
Supporters of the bill say it would outlaw partial-birth abortions and claim it would outlaw a horrible procedure that wasn't medically necessary.
But Carnahan said the legislation raises legal concerns because it doesn't include health exceptions for the woman.
The measure also would put the mother at risk of murder charges, he said in vetoing the measure this summer.
He also said those who assist a woman in obtaining an abortion could be charged as accomplices, the governor said.
Naeger said most lawmakers support the bill.
The House passed the measure 127-29 during the regular session. Senators approved the bill by a 27-6 vote.
"This is not a pro-life, pro-choice issue. This is a radical procedure," Naeger said of partial-birth abortions.
In the House, 109 votes are needed to override the veto. In the Senate, 23 votes are needed.
The veto is sustained unless both houses override the veto.
"I think we can do it in the House," said Naeger.
Kinder is optimistic of a similar outcome in the Senate.
Even state Rep. Phillip Britt, a Kennett Democrat, plans to vote against the governor on the abortion issue.
Britt said he would have preferred that the bill had included a health exception for pregnant women, but he still won't side with the governor.
Britt said he has personally talked to Carnahan and members of the governor's staff but none of their arguments have changed his mind.
Britt said the bill was amended during the legislative session.
"When it first came to committee, I felt very uncomfortable with the bill," Britt said. The earlier bill would have outlawed all abortions that would occur more than five or six weeks after conception. He said that would have been unconstitutional.
When the bill was changed, he said it eliminating that concern.
Britt said he also plans to vote to override the governor's veto of a crime bill.
Britt said Carnahan vetoed the bill because the Kennett lawmaker added a provision to the bill that would have allowed judges to require defendants to pay money to a county law enforcement fund as a condition of probation.
Britt said rural law enforcement agencies need such revenue to operate effectively.
But Carnahan objected to the idea of tying probation to a defendant's ability to pay.
Opponents view the provision as a way for criminals to buy justice.
Carnahan vetoed the crime bill even though it contained sentencing changes designed to ease prison overcrowding, something the governor had supported.
The bill's sponsor, state Sen. Harold Caskey, D-Butler, hopes to convince lawmakers to override the governor's veto.
Britt said Missouri's sheriffs also are lobbying lawmakers to override the veto.
But Britt wonders if House members will vote to override two vetoes.
The House is expected to act first on the abortion bill. If House Democrats vote against the governor on the abortion bill, they may be reluctant to vote against him on the crime bill, Britt said.
But Naeger sees it differently. He compared it to falling off a cliff.
"If you are falling twice as fast, what difference does it make? You are going to hit the ground hard," said Naeger.
Carnahan's vetoes have never been overridden.
"It doesn't happen every day," said Naeger.
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