FOR BUSH, SPEECH IS VITAL, NOT DIRE

President Bush's State of the Union address tonight won't make or break his prospects for re-election, maintain U.S. Rep. Bill Emerson and local political science professor Peter Bergerson.

"I don't see this as a potential Pearl Harbor," said Bergerson, chairman of the political science department at Southeast Missouri State University. "Generally speaking, that's not the way politics works."

But he said, "I do think that it is important."

Emerson, R-Cape Girardeau, described the speech as important. But he said, "I don't think the president's entire re-election prospects hinge on this."

The congressman said Monday that he expects Bush to make a strong speech. Emerson said: "I expect that the president is going to make a very strong, tone-setting speech. I don't expect this president is going to stumble."

Bush is expected to outline a legislative package designed to bolster the nation's economy. The proposed package includes income tax relief for the middle class in the form of an increase in the personal exemption for families with children, a tax credit for first-time home buyers, and a reduction in the tax rate on capital gains.

"I think he realizes the critical need of jump-starting the economy," said Emerson, who voiced support for the economic proposals.

Bergerson said Monday that the State of the Union address will be judged both on what Bush says and how he says it.

"One is the delivery, the style, the mood, the persona that he is able to convey in the presentation," said Bergerson.

"It's a question of leadership and leadership can be demonstrated in speaking."

As to content, Bush will be judged on his proposals to boost the nation's economy, Bergerson said.

"I don't expect that he is going to have any significant new directions or ideas," the political science professor observed. "Seventy-five percent of what he is going to say and ask for has probably been put out on the table in the past."

Bergerson said he expects Bush to challenge Congress to enact the economic proposals.

"A lot of it is going to be talk," said Bergerson. "Congress will accept some of the president's programs, but they will also scrutinize his proposals and make life very difficult for him.

"There is no question Congress is not going to give the president an easy road to victory," said Bergerson.

But Emerson said he believes Congress will enact an economic package this year.

"If the president makes a strong case, I think the American people will demand that Congress drop the partisan gamesmanship and get along with the program," he said.

While critics have assailed Bush's domestic policies, the president has been pointing toward tonight's speech to put forth his proposals to deal with the ailing economy, Bergerson said.

"The timing of it is, of course, perfect," said Bergerson. "It's after the Super Bowl and he doesn't have to compete with any other national or international event."

If the past is any indication, said Bergerson, the president's speech should give him a boost in opinion polls and among voters in the upcoming New Hampshire primary.

On the eve of the president's speech, the Council for Citizens Against Government Waste unveiled its "Taxpayer's State of the Union address."

The plan by the 400,000-member national group calls for elimination of government waste and mismanagement as well as a reduction of the tax burden on working Americans.

The declaration calls for tax relief for working Americans, a balanced budget amendment with spending limits, a line-item veto and legislation to eliminate pork-barrel spending.

The nationwide group involves Taxpayer's Action Networks at the state level.

Julia Kridelbaugh, a member of the approximately 20-member, local Taxpayer's Action Network, decried the high taxes.

"With taxes at record levels, family budgets are tight," she said. "We can't afford to shoulder the budget burden by paying more taxes."

A governmental commission in 1984 recommended a number of cost-cutting moves. According to the commission, the federal government could save $424.4 billion over a three-year period if it implemented the more than 2,400 recommendations, Kridelbaugh said.