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NewsOctober 30, 1991

It's unlikely the Mideast peace conference, which begins today in Madrid, Spain, will resolve the conflicts between Israel and its Arab neighbors, a retired Southeast Missouri State University history professor said Tuesday. "I'll admit I'm not terribly optimistic about it," said the retired professor, George Ketcham, an expert on the Mideast and Islamic civilization...

It's unlikely the Mideast peace conference, which begins today in Madrid, Spain, will resolve the conflicts between Israel and its Arab neighbors, a retired Southeast Missouri State University history professor said Tuesday.

"I'll admit I'm not terribly optimistic about it," said the retired professor, George Ketcham, an expert on the Mideast and Islamic civilization.

"I can't imagine at this point a real settlement coming out of this," he said. "Both sides are too entrenched."

But he added that the peace conference is a step in the right direction. "Just the fact that they may talk will be an improvement."

The peace talks in Madrid mark the first time that Israel has sat down with the neighboring Arab nations collectively, Ketcham said. For there to be any real progress toward peace in that troubled region, Ketcham said, both Arabs and Jews will have to make concessions.

"Israel," he said, "has to make concessions." To Arabs, that means giving up some of the Israeli holdings on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, something Ketcham doesn't believe Israel is willing to do.

"Israel has basically taken the position: first we make peace and then we talk about land," he said.

Israel controls the West Bank, Golan Heights and Gaza Strip, which it captured from its Arab neighbors in pre-emptive strikes during the Six Day War in 1967.

"There are people in Israel today who would be willing to give the land up, but that's not the government," he said.

"Part of the problem is the structure of the government," said Ketcham. Israel's legislature is comprised of many small political parties.

"It means that the most extreme groups are often able to bring undue pressure upon the government," explained Ketcham. "The right-wing element in Israel is adamantly opposed to any concessions or even any talks."

Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, who is participating in the peace talks, may find it difficult to hold the ruling coalition together, Ketcham said.

On the other side of the negotiating table, said Ketcham, "The Arabs are going to have to bring pressure to slow down the threats on Israel" and reduce violence.

Ketcham said the peace talks may end in both sides being deadlocked. The best that can be hoped for, he said, is "a little peace" in which Israel and its Arab neighbors have improved relations.

If Israel, for example, could manage to give some degree of autonomy to the Palestinians within its borders, that could help with the peace process, Ketcham said.

The peace conference was set up through the efforts of the United States, with the assistance of the Soviet Union.

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The support of the Soviet Union has been vital to the peace effort, he said. In the past, the Soviet Union has supported the Arab states.

"If the Soviet Union were like it was a few years back, and were hostile to peace talks, I think it would be almost impossible to get the Arabs to the peace table," Ketcham said.

Since the days of the Truman administration, the U.S. has strongly supported Israel. U.S. aid to Israel amounts to about $3.5 billion annually, said Ketcham. "That's a very large chunk of foreign aid."

In the past, he said, the U.S. has given little consideration to the "legitimacy of Arab claims." But recently that has changed, with the U.S. taking more of a middle ground regarding the Israeli-Arab discord, he said.

Although Israel is a small country surrounded by larger Arab nations, it has superior military technology.

"Syria is the only one that can pose a real threat other than terrorist threats to Israel, but I don't think that Syria could do it alone," he said.

"I don't think the Arabs are going to launch a war against Israel in the foreseeable future."

But terrorist acts will be difficult to stop, he said. Such actions, he said, are "futile acts but understandable acts of extremely frustrated people."

"When you have people who are deeply resentful of what has happened to them as Palestinians are, terrorism is to be expected," he said.

Even with its military might, Israel is not in an enviable position, Ketcham said.

"Israel is occupying a piece of land that has been very rarely an independent land," he pointed out. "Israel is like a string of beads stretched out on the (Mediterranean) coast."

Within Israel and the occupied territory, the Arab population is growing faster than the Jewish population, he said. In 1988, for example, the West Bank was home to nearly 900,000 Arabs and 100,000 Jews.

If U.S. aid to Israel declines in future years, there's a question as to whether the Jewish state could afford to maintain its extensive military operations, Ketcham said.

Ketcham said he believes the establishment of a Palestinian state on the West Bank would be "a reasonable solution."

But, he said, Israel worries that giving up the West Bank would make it militarily vulnerable.

All these factors make it difficult to secure peace in the Mideast, he said. "I do think a major settlement, a real peace in the Middle East, is not highly probable," said Ketcham. "It's improbable."

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