CITY GROWTH PREDICTED TO TRAIL COUNTY

Cape Girardeau County's population will grow faster than Cape Girardeau city's over the next 25 years, regional planners predict.

The city of Cape Girardeau could have a population of 45,887 by 2020, while the county could have nearly 91,000 inhabitants, according to new projections from the Southeast Missouri Regional Planning and Economic Development Commission.

The Perryville-based planners said the city at best could grow by 33 percent while the county, which includes the city, could grow by 47 percent.

At worst, the city could grow by just 343 people or less than 1 percent, while the county could grow by 7,989 people or nearly 13 percent, the planners predicted.

They said increased residential growth in Jackson and the desire of many people to live in smaller communities are factors in the population growth outside of Cape Girardeau city.

"Residential growth in Jackson has picked up astronomically," said Thomas Tucker, executive director of the regional planning commission.

But John Mehner, president of the Cape Girardeau Chamber of Commerce, warned against putting too much stock in projections.

Mehner said the Census Bureau figures are the only ones that matter from any official standpoint.

The 1990 census showed Cape city's population at 34,475 while the total county population stood at 61,633.

The 1994 "quick census" listed the county's population at 64,506, up 4.5 percent since 1990. The city had a population of 35,936, a 4 percent hike.

A quick census isn't as complete as a full census, but it gives cities and counties some idea of population changes, Mehner said.

"If these figures are correct, we are growing at 1 percent a year now in the city and just a hair over 1 percent a year in the county," said Mehner.

"To me, that is pretty controlled growth," he added.

Tucker said the projections suggest healthy growth for the whole Cape Girardeau area.

In its report, the planning commission said Cape Girardeau city has experienced population increases every decade this century.

The increase has varied from a high of 76 percent between 1900 and 1910 to a low of .33 percent between 1980 and 1990.

Between 1900 and 1990, the city's population grew at an average rate of 26.4 percent per decade.

The rate would have been higher except for the decade of the 1980s, when census figures showed an increase of only 114 people.

Tucker and others are at a loss to explain the lack of growth in that decade.

"The city was experiencing healthy economic growth and the housing market was also healthy," he said.

The city's population as a percent of the county's population increased each decade through 1970.

In 1970, 63 percent of Cape County's inhabitants lived in the city of Cape Girardeau.

Over the past two decades, however, the city has had less of an impact on the total county population.

In 1990, 55.9 percent of county residents lived in Cape Girardeau city, the lowest percentage since 1950, regional planners said.

The county's lowest rate of growth was 1.6 percent between 1940 and 1950. The highest was 19.2 percent from 1970 to 1980.

Tucker said the latest population projections don't take into account any future annexations by the city of Cape Girardeau.