AREA VOTERS UNDECIDED

Some area voters aren't sure who they will vote for when they go to the polls Tuesday in Missouri's first presidential primary since 1988.

A random telephone survey conducted by the Southeast Missourian last week found a high percentage of undecided voters, particularly among independents.

The newspaper surveyed 227 voters in Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Scott City and Chaffee.

Eight said they didn't plan to vote in the election.

Of the remaining 219 voters, 48.4 percent said they weren't sure who they would vote for Tuesday.

Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush was favored by 30.1 percent of respondents, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with 12.8 percent. Vice President Al Gore was the choice of 5.9 percent of respondents, followed by former New Jersey senator Bill Bradley with 2.8 percent.

Ninety-nine respondents identified themselves as Republicans. Eighty-three said they were independents. Democrats numbered 45.

Among independents, nearly 58 percent said they were undecided as to who they would vote for in the primary.

Among Democrats, 27 percent said they were undecided. Two Democratic voters said they would vote for McCain in the Republican primary.

Only 31 percent of Republicans said they were undecided. Among Republicans surveyed last Tuesday, Bush was the clear favorite.

That doesn't surprise Donna Lichtenegger, Cape Girardeau County coordinator for the Bush campaign.

"The people that I have talked to are just really excited about him," said Lichtenegger.

Bush visited Cape Girardeau last August and has the support of U.S. Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, who represents the sprawling 8th District in Southeast Missouri.

The Bush campaign locally is working to get the vote out. Volunteers are calling likely voters, urging them to go to the polls Tuesday and vote for the Texas governor.

The phone bank operation began Wednesday. Lichtenegger said they hope to reach 3,000 likely voters in Cape Girardeau County before election day.

Bush hasn't opened an official campaign office in Cape Girardeau. The phone bank is operating out of Emerson's campaign office in the H and H Building on Broadway.

Lichtenegger said the Bush campaign would reimburse the Emerson campaign for use of the office space.

David Steelman of Rolla is co-chairman of Missourians for McCain. Steelman said his candidate is within 10 percentage points of Bush in the latest statewide poll.

McCain's success depends on winning over independent voters, Steelman said.

"We don't expect a huge Democratic crossover. The key is the independent vote," he said.

Steelman said he thinks independent voters hold the key to winning all elections today.

It's more difficult to poll independent voters, he said. "Independents tend to not really like to talk to pollsters."

In the presidential primaries, McCain routinely has done better on election day than the polls had predicted, Steelman said. That's not surprising, he said, considering his appeal to independent voters.

While Bush's lead over McCain in statewide polls has narrowed, Southeast Missouri remains a Bush stronghold.

"I think Southeast Missouri is one of Bush's stronger regions," Steelman said.

He said conservative radio commentator Rush Limbaugh's support of Bush is a factor, as is Emerson's endorsement of the Texas governor.

"We have understood from the beginning that the McCain campaign is an uphill climb," said Steelman.

He said that is particularly true in Missouri because U.S. Sens. John Ashcroft and Christopher "Kit" Bond and the GOP congressmen from the state are backing Bush.

Dr. Rick Althaus, a political science professor at Southeast Missouri State University, said the Emerson campaign organization is a potent force in the region.

"It makes a huge difference," said Althaus, who chairs the Cape Girardeau County Democratic Committee.

Althaus said there's no organized effort locally among Democrats to get out the vote.

Gore has the support of many Democrats in the area. He campaigned with President Clinton in Cape Girardeau in 1996.

The Republican contest is attracting most of the attention of the media and the public, he said.

"I think Democrats are kind of savoring the disarray on the Republican side because that is so unusual," said Althaus.

He said there may be less coffee-shop talk among Democrats locally because "there is a high level of satisfaction with Al Gore."

Dr. Russell Renka, a political science professor at Southeast, said the Missourian poll sampled so few voters that it is hard to reach any solid conclusions from the numbers.

Renka said the sampling error could be 8 or 9 percent. Even a survey of 400 voters has a sampling error of about 5 percent, he said.

"You can't make much of a prediction based on that," he said.

Still, Renka said it is surprising that the newspaper's poll showed such a high number of undecided voters.

He said independents make up about a third of voters nationwide. It's hard to predict how they will vote, Renka said.

"They tend to be less interested generally in politics than partisans are," said Renka.