2000 CENSUS MEANS CHANGE FOR CAPE AREA

Local officials and community leaders are counting on the 2000 census to provide a statistical snapshot of progress for Cape Girardeau County.

They know the area has grown over the last decade, with new subdivisions and businesses taking root where once there were farm fields.

The only question is how much, and city and county officials won't know that answer until the federal government releases census figures for counties and cities next month.

Compiling the statistical album every 10 years is a massive task. The 2000 census cost $4.8 billion and counted over 281 million Americans. At the height of last year's census, the U.S. Census Bureau employed more than 800,000 people in the counting effort.

The numbers are used in everything from reapportionment of U.S. House of Representatives and state legislative seats to the distribution of federal and state funds. More than $185 billion annually go to communities based on census numbers.

Closer to home, the Cape Girardeau and Jackson area could secure an urban designation from the federal government. That could funnel more federal money to the area, including planning money for transportation projects.

The new census also will mean changes in the six Cape Girardeau city wards, which will be redrawn to reflect population changes as the city charter requires, says Mayor Al Spradling III. The boundary changes will be the first since voters approved the ward system in 1993, when each ward included nearly 5,800 residents.

The population growth on the city's west side would have the biggest impact on Ward 6 boundaries, Spradling believes.

"It would impact the next city elections in April 2002," the mayor said. "There will be some people in different wards because of the way the city has expanded."

Business impact

The U.S. Census Bureau's 1999 estimate put Cape Girardeau County's population at 67,200, up 9 percent from the 1990 census. The biggest part of that was in Jackson, a city of about 12,000 people. It's estimated the town grew by more than 2,400 people in the 1990s -- more than 25 percent.

By comparison, Cape Girardeau, with an estimated population of 36,625, grew by 1,696 people or 4.9 percent.

But those numbers are only estimates, and they're based on calculations that start with the 1990 census numbers. Even so, they were important to the business owners who took a chance on the area in the last few years.

They use the numbers in deciding where to build new stores.

"You locate new businesses where you have expanding markets," said Dr. Mike Roark, a geography professor at Southeast Missouri State University. "If you are in a region where there is slower growth, that means the only way you can grow your business is to fight your competitors."

In addition to attracting new business, the numbers could mean attracting more government money. John Mehner, Cape Girardeau Chamber of Commerce president, believes the Cape Girardeau and Jackson area populations combined could approach 50,000.

If it reaches the population threshold, the area could qualify as a metropolitan statistical area, a federal designation that would allow the area to establish a metropolitan planning organization.

The organization, which would be set up by local governments, could secure federal money through the Missouri Department of Transportation. The money could be used to plan for transportation improvements, everything from roads to aviation.

Currently, Missouri has six metropolitan planning organizations -- one each in St. Louis, Kansas City, St. Joseph, Columbia, Joplin and Springfield.

The ones closest in size to the Cape Girardeau area are St. Joseph, Columbia and Joplin. All three of those areas are in the 60,000 to 75,000 population range, said Kent Van Landuyt, a MoDOT official in Jefferson City who serves as a liaison to the metropolitan planning organizations.

Columbia's metropolitan planning organization received $107,700 in transportation planning money last year. St. Joseph received $106,000 and Joplin $96,500.

Van Landuyt believes the Cape Girardeau area has an opportunity to secure a metropolitan planning organization. "I think Cape is probably the only one close," he said.

The federal government is redefining metropolitan statistical areas, a move that local officials say could help Cape Girardeau's eligibility. But Census Bureau officials say it will be 2003 before the federal government establishes any new ones based on the 2000 census figures.

Falling behind

The federal government announced state and national population figures from the 2000 census in December.

The nation's population grew by 13.2 percent over the last decade. Missouri's grew 9.3 percent, topping 5.59 million.

If the state continues to lag behind the national growth rate, Missouri will have fewer congressmen in the future.

"It is not just political representation," said Roark. "It is money you are talking about, too. We will have less money from the federal government for highways, social programs and everything."

Geography is largely to blame, Roark says. The southeast and southwest parts of the country are experiencing population booms. Americans want to live in climates with mild winters, he says.

Still, Roark says Missouri is better off than harsh-winter states like North Dakota. Its population grew by half a percent over the last decade.

THE CENSUS

1999 estimates for Cape Girardeau County

Population: 67,2000, up 9 percent from 1990

Persons per square mile: 116

Males: 32,467

Females: 34,733

Population under 18: 23.8 percent

Population 65 and older: 13.7 percent

White: 93 percent

Black: 5.8 percent

Asian: 1 percent

Hispanic: 0.7 percent

American Indian/Eskimo: 0.2 percent