State estimates

Estimating state revenue for a fiscal year that doesn't start for six months is risky business, but a good-faith effort needs to be made in order to prepare a workable budget starting in January when the Missouri Legislature convenes.

Back when a Republican occupied the governor's office and Democrats were solidly in control of the House and Senate, a system for establishing a starting point was created: a consensus estimate of revenue.

Most seasoned state politicians would agree that arriving at a consensus is easier when a strong economy is generating big increases in state revenue. That's the situation Missouri was in just a few years ago. Remember the refund checks taxpayers received because the growth in state revenue exceeded limits established by the Hancock Amendment? And remember the tax cuts, including the elimination of state sales tax on grocery products, that were enacted in order to keep state revenue within constitutional limits?

Those days ended when the U.S. economy soured, requiring revenue estimates for state budgeting purposes to be more precise -- something that's difficult to achieve even under the best of circumstances.

Moreover, politics has taken the upper hand in deriving a consensus on state revenue. The governor's office now is occupied by a Democrat. And both houses of the legislature are controlled by Republicans.

With the tight economy and the shifts in political control, a revenue consensus has become as slippery as the greased pig at the county fair.

Until last year, budget planners from the House, Senate and governor's office have been willing to make concessions and use the consensus effort as a learning process. By the time January rolled around, everyone pretty much agreed on how much state revenue would be on hand to appropriate in the next budget.

Not anymore. The House and governor's office are hundreds of millions of dollars apart on their estimates, and consensus appears to be less likely than ever before because of partisan entrenchment.

Meanwhile, the Senate budget estimate is somewhere in between. It makes some sense to seek a middle ground that will give legislators and the governor a rational basis for formulating a state budget for the fiscal year that starts next July 1.

Without a consensus, state taxpayers will once again be hit with conflicting information that is designed to curry political favor more than resolve the state's financial needs. This is a poor way to conduct the business of Missouri government.