Parity brings hope to camps

When Bill Polian was general manager of the Buffalo Bills in the early 1990s, he would go to training camp knowing his team would be one of the top half-dozen in NFL.

This year, as president of the Indianapolis Colts, Polian considers his team one of the best 19 in the league. In the salary-cap era, he figures that makes them Super Bowl contenders.

"I look at maybe 11 teams in the AFC and eight in the NFC and can visualize any of them getting to the Super Bowl -- with a big 'if,"' he says. "The right bounces and good health. If we lose any one of five guys, we're in deep trouble."

Polian isn't the only optimist as NFL training camps open in the next 10 days. Even the dismal Cincinnati Bengals have hope that new coach Marvin Lewis can get them to .500 for the first time since 1996.

The best teams are more cautious than the lesser ones.

"A lot of luck plays into winning a championship -- sometimes just a matter of inches or feet," said Rich McKay, general manager of Tampa Bay, which won its first NFL title last season.

"We're not going in saying we'll win the Super Bowl again. We focus on winning our division. Then we try to get home-field advantage. And then we hope for luck.

"Last year, we finally got some."

The past five seasons prove that when the stars are aligned right, almost anyone can win.

The Rams and Titans went to the Super Bowl five seasons ago after being a combined 12-20 the previous year; the Giants and Ravens came from nowhere to get there after that.

One player, second-year QB Michael Vick, turned Atlanta into a playoff team last year and is largely responsible for this year's sellout at the Georgia Dome, which until his arrival was often half empty.

Last year, a quarter of the 256 games were decided by three points or fewer, and there were a record 25 overtimes.