`WOOLLY WORMS' GIVE INSIGHT TO WEATHER; COLD START AND END TO THIS WINTER WITH MILD TREND IN BETWEEN

"Woolly worms," long thought to reveal through their band markings the severity of winter weather, apparently are in short supply in many parts of Missouri this year.

Helen Wohlschaeger Dowell of St. Louis, known in that city as the "Woolly Worm Woman," has predicted winter weather for years by "reading" the little critters.

Although Dowell reportedly has been unable to perform her annual ritual this year because she's been unable to find any woolly worms, or "woolly bears" as they're sometimes called, the insects are plentiful around Cape Girardeau.

A study of more than 200 woolly bears in the Cape area from Nov. 17-21 on the Clear Creek-East Cape Girardeau levee and along the Diversion Channel levee south of Cape Girardeau, indicates a cold winter early and late with mild weather between.

The woolly bear is the larval or caterpillar stage of the common tiger moth. During the summer, the caterpillar hatches from its egg and eats and grows.

In the fall, as cold weather nears, the caterpillar searches for a protected place to sleep during the winter until spring, when it can resume eating and eventually become an adult moth.

The caterpillars most often are seen by the thousands from late September through late October as they wiggle across sidewalks and roadways.

Last year, they weren't observed in this area in large numbers until late October. This year, they delayed their emergence until mid-November.

Since early colonial days, many people believe the woolly bear provides an accurate indication of what the coming winter will be like in the area in which they are observed.

According to Rosemary Kilduff, of Beattyville, Ky., the key prognosticators are the width and color of the bands of fuzzy hair on the woolly bear.

Kilduff, a writer for the Beattyville newspaper, conducts her own woolly bear survey each fall in preparation for the community's Woolly Bear Festival.

Kilduff says solid-back woolly bears are bad news because it means a long, cold winter. But woolly bears that are all brown or orange foretell a mild, warm winter.

According to Kilduff, if there is a single black band at one end of the caterpillar with the rest of the band all brown or orange, it signifies a cold start of winter, but mild weather the rest of the winter.

If there are black bands at either end of the woolly bear, it means a cold start and end to winter, but mild weather in between.

Depending on how wide the black and brown or orange bands are indicates how long the cold and mild periods will last.

So what does all of this mean for residents of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois?

More than 99 percent of the woolly bears observed in this area had small black bands at each end, with a large brown or orange band between.

A few of the caterpillars had somewhat larger black bands at each end, but only one was seen with an all-black band on its body.

That means the winter here will begin colder than normal, then turn mild during the middle part of the season, and return to colder weather in mid-February.

In its 30-day outlook for December, the National Weather Service which doesn't put much stock in the woolly bear as a weather prognosticator says it could be a wet month in Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, with temperatures slightly above average.

The weather service's 90-day, long-range outlook for December-February, calls for wetter than normal weather, and slightly cooler than normal temperatures.

Those skeptical of the woolly bear's weather forecasting abilities, should note that last fall, the caterpillars in this area indicated a generally mild winter was ahead.

After a cool start, the winter of 1991-92 wound up as one of the warmest in nearly 50 years at Cape Girardeau.

But there are other "unscientific" ways to predict the weather. Weather sages often look for hornets nests in the woods. If the nests are high in trees, snow will lay heavy on the ground.

Another says if a split persimmon tree seed has the shape of a spoon, it means we'll be shoveling a lot of snow this winter. If it is the shape of a knife, the winter will be cold and biting. If the split seed is in the shape of a fork, it will be a mild winter.