With Fed expected to hike, attention turns to what it says

WASHINGTON -- There isn't much doubt about what the Federal Reserve will do when its latest policy meeting ends Wednesday: It's all but certain to raise its benchmark interest rate -- its first increase in a year.

The anticipation surrounds what Fed officials may or may not say about the pace of future rate hikes against the backdrop of Donald Trump's election.

Will they signal they expect to raise rates very gradually in the coming year? Or will they say the risk of high inflation resulting from Trump's tax and spending plans may require accelerated rate hikes?

On this, economists and investors agree: The Fed will raise its key rate by a modest quarter-point to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent -- a move that likely will lead to slightly higher rates on some consumer and business loans. The Fed last increased rates in December 2015, when it raised its benchmark rate from a record low set at the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

"Never has the Fed telegraphed a rate hike as thoroughly as this one," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors.

Yet how the Fed will devise its rate policies in light of Trump's policies isn't clear and might not be clear after it issues a statement and Chair Janet Yellen holds a news conference Wednesday.

Wall Street, for its part, has signaled its response to Trump's election: Investors have sent stock prices surging to record highs and driven up longer-term rates in anticipation Republican control of the White House and Congress will allow Trump to cut taxes, ease regulations and accelerate infrastructure spending.

Many appear to think those actions, in turn, will increase economic growth, inflation and corporate profits.

Some Fed watchers expect faster growth to cause the central bank to shift its focus from trying to energize the economy to considering ways to counter the risk of too-high inflation. On that assumption, some are revising their forecasts for Fed rate hikes in 2017.

Before Trump's victory, the consensus was for two Fed rate increases next year. Now, some say they foresee three or four hikes. The expectation for higher rates in part reflects a job market that has vastly improved, with the unemployment rate at a nine-year low of 4.6 percent.

"I think the rate hike this week will be the start of a series of rate hikes," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "Financial markets are buoyant after the election, the economy is very close to full employment, and inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2 percent target. All the conditions are in place for higher interest rates."

Other analysts suggest the cautious Fed will be slow to announce any major policy shifts. For one thing, Trump's economic program still must win congressional approval and could undergo change along the way.

In her only public remarks since Trump's election, Yellen told a congressional committee last month Fed officials will monitor Congress' actions and be "updating our economic outlook as the policy landscape becomes clearer."

Other Fed officials have endorsed that wait-and-see approach. As a result, when the Fed updates its quarterly forecasts Wednesday, it may indicate little change from its most recent projections in September. Three months ago, the collective forecast of Fed officials was for two rate increases in 2017.