Wide open race for Mo.'s 9th District gives Democrats hope

WASHINGTON (AP) — The last time a Democrat occupied Missouri's 9th District Congressional seat, it was an anti-abortion, pro-gun, conservative populist named Harold Volkmer.

After Volkmer lost his seat in 1996 to Republican Kenny Hulshof, many of his supporters moved firmly into the Republican column.

Now that Hulshof is giving up his job in Congress to run for governor, Democrats are hopeful they can recapture the seat despite the political shift of the past dozen years.

"I'll never say it's impossible, but its an uphill battle because of the demographics and the number of Republicans in the district compared to Democrats," Volkmer, 76, said in an interview. "But there are still a lot of independents and depending on who gets them, a Democrat could still win."

Volkmer, now retired, has been fielding lots of calls lately at his Hannibal, Mo., home from potential candidates seeking advice in what is expected to be a wide open race.

At least four Democrats and five Republicans have already declared their intentions to run in the primary and others are weighing bids for the seat that includes Columbia and extends to the western edge of the St. Louis metro area, western St. Charles County and Franklin County south of the Missouri River.

There is no doubt the district leans conservative. President Bush won 59 percent of the vote in the district in 2004. Two years later, Democrat Claire McCaskill narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent statewide, but lost by 6 points in Hulshof's district.

But David Robertson, a University of Missouri-St. Louis political science professor, said one of the biggest concerns for the GOP in 2008 is how shaky the Republican majority is in fast-growing exurban areas.

"Some of that has spread into the eastern part of this district," Robertson said. "That's a lot of voters and it's going to be very important to see if Republicans can retain the loyalty of voters in places like St. Charles County."

Republicans have more reason for concern after the party earlier this week lost the seat held for two decades by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., in a special election in Chicago's outer suburbs. Combine that with a still-unpopular president, the lingering war in Iraq, economic turbulence and skyrocketing oil prices and Democrats believe they have the recipe for an upset in Missouri.

When Hulshof opted to run for governor, it marked the 26th open seat that the Republicans were forced to defend this election cycle, counting both retirements and resignations. That is expected to make it more difficult for Republicans to limit their losses after losing control of the House in 2006.

Democrats running for the seat include former House speaker Steve Gaw, of Moberly; State Rep. Judy Baker, of Columbia; Marion County Presiding Commissioner Lyndon Bode; and former Senate Minority Leader Ken Jacob, of Columbia.

Republicans planning to run are state Rep. Danie Moore, of Fulton; tourism director Blaine Luetkemeyer, of St. Elizabeth; former University of Missouri football standout Brock Olivo, of Hermann; Republican state Rep. Bob Onder, of Lake St. Louis; and Dan Bishir, of St. Peters.

The district's large number of independent voters played a key role in victories for both Volkmer and Hulshof, and party officials expect that will be decisive again this year.

"It's a classic swing district," said Missouri Democratic Party spokesman Jack Cardetti. "Whoever the nominee is from either party is going to need support from moderates and independents to win the seat."

Missouri Republican Party spokesman Paul Sloca conceded that voters in the district have a strong independent streak, but said Republicans are confident they can hold that seat.

"District voters are turned off by extremists on either end of the political spectrum, which is why Kenny Hulshof was re-elected year after year and why Republican state lawmakers greatly outnumber Democrats in the district," Sloca said.

Sloca said the district's voters trend conservative on issues like lower taxes, but strongly support funding for higher education and a commitment to the state's farmers and ranchers.

Democrats are buoyed by the impressive turnout in the state's presidential primary, when Democratic presidential candidates drew nearly 60 percent of the vote, compared with just over 40 percent for Republicans. If Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee, Robertson said his appeal among students and younger voters could make a difference in Columbia, home to the state's flagship university.

"The primary indicated to me that Obama in particular was able to excite a whole bunch of voters," Robertson said.

But Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, also has a strong appeal among independent voters.

For Volkmer, it's all about attracting the right candidate.

"If we have a good candidate, I think we win," Volkmer said. "It would be a lot easier for a conservative Democrat to win than a liberal Democrat."