Who's endorsing whom?

Three state contests for the Republican presidential nomination have so far produced three winners. On the Democratic side, with two contests completed, there are two winners.

The only thing clear about the 2008 path to the White House is that nothing is clear. And if area partisans were hoping endorsements from local leaders could provide a guide to picking a candidate most in touch with Southeast Missouri values, they are out of luck. Like the nation as a whole, there's no consensus.

On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Jo Ann Emerson of Cape Girardeau and state House Majority Leader Steve Tilley of Perryville are co-chairs of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani's Missouri campaign. House Speaker Rod Jetton of Marble Hill, Mo., is not only supporting former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's bid, he's on Romney's payroll.

Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder of Cape Girardeau helped spark the summer buzz about former senator Fred Thompson with an endorsement before Thompson was a declared candidate. And state Rep. Scott Lipke of Jackson is working to organize his fellow lawmakers on behalf of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.

And while Democrats are, in some Southeast Missouri counties, harder to find than Republicans, endorsements from our area are part of the political landscape in that contest as well. Former secretary of state Bekki Cook of Cape Girardeau is helping chair U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign, and former governor Warren Hearnes and his wife, former state representative Betty Hearnes, on Wednesday added their names to Clinton's effort.

First-term state Rep. Steve Hodges of East Prairie, Mo., isn't offering up an endorsement, but he did express concern that negative feelings about Clinton and Obama could hurt the chances of Democratic candidates in rural parts of the state.

Missourians will help sort out the contenders from the pretenders Feb. 5, when it joins 20 other states in the biggest single day of presidential primaries and caucuses ever held. The outcome here and in other states on that day could settle the nominations in both parties.

But if no clear winner emerges in either party, the organizational strength behind the endorsements could be tested in the party gatherings that will chose Missouri's delegates to both parties' national conventions. The primary binds the delegates only on the first ballot at the convention, and delegates assigned to candidates that drop out of the race may vote as they please. While the outcome of a convention hasn't been in doubt since the 1976 Republican contest between Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford, the possibility remains.

One of the earliest area endorsements came from Kinder, who in April published an essay calling Thompson "the real deal, the closest thing to a natural we've had (or are likely to see) since Reagan."

On Wednesday, Kinder renewed his support for Thompson despite the lackluster showings in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Thompson is focused on South Carolina, which votes Jan. 19, hoping to use a win there to build momentum.

"I have resisted efforts from candidates in other camps to solicit me for joining other candidacies, and I am not doing that," Kinder said. He continues to believe in the ultimate appeal of Thompson, Kinder said, and believes the former Tennessee senator has the qualities of electability and reliable conservatism that the party needs.

Like Thompson, Giuliani made limited efforts in Iowa and New Hampshire during the final weeks of those races. For Tilley, Giuliani provides a symbol of strength based on his actions after the Sept. 11 attack on the World Trade Center. But the former mayor has other solid accomplishments, Tilley said, including a record of remaking New York from a symbol of decay -- "the crime capital of the U.S., a cesspool of filth and porn" -- into a place where people can live, work and visit with a sense of ease.

"He not only does well with Republicans, but he has an appeal to moderates and the best chance to win in the general election," Tilley said.

'A proven leader'

Emerson could not be reached for this article, but in a statement prepared for her October endorsement of Giuliani, she noted that she differs with him on some issues but likes his abilities.

"Despite the fact that I disagree with Mayor Giuliani on some social issues, including abortion, he's a proven leader who will make an excellent president," Emerson said. "Mayor Giuliani appeals to a broad cross-section of voters who, like me, deeply care about the security of our nation and the fiscal responsibility of government."

While Thompson and Giuliani bided their time, waiting for later contests to prove their strength, Romney took second place in New Hampshire and Iowa and won the caucuses in Wyoming. Jetton did not return a call to his Capitol office seeking comment. But in November, Jetton used his weekly column for newspapers in his district to explain his choice, telling the story of a trip with Gov. Matt Blunt, who also supports Romney, to meet the candidate in Boston.

In that meeting, Jetton, the son of a Baptist preacher, said Romney satisfied him completely with answers about his Mormon faith and, on other questions, showed "it was evident he had a clear vision and plan for strengthening our families, our economy and our military."

Jetton did not, however, disclose in that column that he has been on Romney's payroll, receiving $6,000 a month for his firm, Common Sense Conservative Consulting, since the summer.

Lipke has been quietly lining up supporters for Huckabee for the past several months, finding endorsements from fellow Republican lawmakers across the state. He views Huckabee as the candidate who can appeal to moderates while maintaining his core values as a social conservative.

Huckabee has been criticized for tax increases in Arkansas, but Lipke said that those actions actually show his strength. One major item was for road improvements approved by 80 percent of Arkansas voters, the other was a response to a court order to better fund public schools. Huckabee doesn't apologize for his actions and didn't avoid responsibility for the state's needs, Lipke said.

"He is just a candidate that is coming along at the right time with a message that resonates," Lipke said.

Both Lipke and Tilley said the contest, while spirited, will not strain the GOP. "I respect all those individuals and will support whoever makes it out of the Republican primaries," Tilley said.

The Democrats have a narrower field, and unless a surprise emerges soon, the contest could be down to Obama and Clinton by Feb. 5. For Cook, now engaged in law practice, Clinton's appeal was confirmed on a November trip to Bali with her husband, also a lawyer. The tour guide told her he hoped Clinton would win. "He said, 'I want Hillary. Mr. Bill made America shine in the world.'"

There's also a little bit of gender pride, Cook said. "I am hoping, before my life is over, that we have a woman president."

For Hodges, the choice among his party's top contenders is a difficult one. The problems rural Democrats will face with Obama are centered on his inexperience, and for Clinton views "run hot and cold," and mainly center on Bill Clinton and the part he may play in her presidency.

While Hodges said he hears mainly positive remarks about John Edwards, the former U.S. senator from North Carolina, he's not ready to endorse any candidate. "I just have some reservations," Hodges said.

rkeller@semissourian.com

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