Waiting game may help Greitens' campaign

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- Former Navy SEAL officer Eric Greitens raised more than $2 million for a Republican campaign for Missouri governor, toured the state and displayed a sign that read, "GREITENS. GOVERNOR" in capital letters while talking with supporters at a Jefferson City diner two months before officially declaring his candidacy.

It wasn't until Saturday -- nearly seven months to the day since he first formed a so-called exploratory committee -- he officially declared his candidacy in the election for governor in 2016.

In a time of what some political scientists refer to as the "never-ending campaign," experts said Greitens' strategy of playing the waiting game and postponing an official launch could have advantages compared to candidates who declared earlier, such as former Missouri House speaker and U.S. attorney Catherine Hanaway.

Other Missouri candidates appear to be taking the same approach.

St. Louis businessman John Brunner in a Friday statement said he's "prepared to officially move forward with my campaign" for governor but said he'd make an official announcement Oct. 5. Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster said years ago he intended to run for governor, but his campaign staff since has denied he's officially a candidate. Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon is barred from seeking re-election because of term limits.

The tactic of a later announcement could be particularly effective for Greitens, whose bid for governor is his first try for elected office.

Greitens has no voting record. Because he wasn't yet an official candidate, he was able to fend off questions about his platform as he was considering a run, saying he planned to develop firm stances after speaking with voters across the state.

"Just testing the waters often times comes with less scrutiny, less harsh coverage," said Mitchell McKinney, an associate professor of communication at University of Missouri-Columbia, who specializes in politics and rhetoric.

The delay gave Greitens time to attempt to create "drama and suspense" leading up to his official announcement, which University of Missouri-St. Louis political scientist Terry Jones described as "the biggest free day of earned media that you're ever going to have typically in a campaign." Hundreds of supporters turned out for Greitens' campaign launch on Saturday in suburban St. Louis near his childhood home.

There are other advantages to announcing early. It allows candidates to stake out a race and get a jump-start on fundraising. Hanaway was the first Republican to announce a bid for governor when she declared her candidacy in February 2014.

"After watching the past two Republican gubernatorial nominees handily lose, having had less than a year to build their grassroots organizations, it was important for us to start building our organization early to ensure we would have the best grassroots organization in Missouri history," Hanaway spokesman Nick Maddux said. He said Hanaway's campaign for governor was the first to have volunteers in each county of Missouri.

David Spence, GOP nominee for governor in 2012, lost by 12 percentage points, and 2008 nominee Kenny Hulshof lost by 19 points to Democrat Nixon.

Jumping into the race early doesn't always pan out, analysts said.

"The only reason to do that is to try to clear the field and keep everybody else out," Jones said. "Obviously, that did not work in Catherine Hanaway's situation."

She now is part of a crowded field of four declared candidates, plus Brunner, who is expected to join next month.

And while Hanaway had $1.5 million in cash on hand compared to $1.1 million for Greitens, according to campaign finance reports through the end of June, Greitens has been outpacing her recently in raising money. Greitens raised $1.27 million, while Hanaway raised $400,000 during the first half of 2015.

Greitens' fundraising pace has only increased since June, according to reports of individual contributions over $5,000, which must be filed promptly.

His delayed entrance allowed him to amass a war chest and officially kick off his candidacy with more than $2 million raised, an attention-grabbing feat for a political outsider.