VIOLENT CRIME DECLINES IN 2000, SURVEY FINDS

WASHINGTON -- Violent crime in the United States fell by a record 15 percent last year, the government reported Wednesday in a broad survey of victims.

Some experts cautioned that the survey was weighted toward less serious offenses. Other government data indicate a seven-year decline in crimes such as rape and murder has leveled off.

The 2000 result was the largest one-year drop since 1973, when the Justice Department began the annual survey of crimes reported firsthand by victims but not necessarily to police. The report excludes murders, the least frequent but best chronicled of major crimes.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics' survey also found the rate of property crimes such as burglary and auto theft declined 10 percent from 1999.

Local crime

In Cape Girardeau, an increase of 31 percent in violent crimes from 1999 is not what it might seem, police Lt. Carl Kinnison said. If Cape Girardeau had two murders instead of one last year, the statistical change would have been a 100 percent increase, he said. "It's because of the small numbers we're dealing with," he said.

Robberies were responsible for most of the increase in violent crimes in Cape Girardeau. A series of hold-ups involving two groups of suspects late last summer caused the total to rise to 48, compared to 37 in 1999, Kinnison said.

Reported rapes in Cape Girardeau increased from 13 to 20, while assaults requiring medical attention grew slightly from 20 to 24.

The bureau estimated there were 25.9 million violent and property crimes in 2000, nearly 3 million fewer than the year before and the lowest figure ever. In the first survey, in 1973, the estimate was 44 million crimes.

"The news appears much better than it really is," said James Alan Fox, a criminal justice professor at Northeastern University in Boston. Fox said the survey is heavily weighted toward less serious crimes like simple assaults, which can include pushing and shoving.

"It's good news, but not great news," he said. "People react to a report like this and think about 15 percent less chance of being mugged and raped; that's not the case here."

The survey runs counter to preliminary FBI figures, released in May from official police records, that found violent crimes in America virtually unchanged last year -- up 0.1 percent.

Fox said the FBI data, compiled from reports made to 17,000 police agencies around the country, are a better indicator of crime trends.

160,000 interviews

The Justice Department survey, the government's broadest measure of crime, was based on interviews throughout the nation with about 160,000 people over age 11.

The violent crime rate began falling in 1994, and the decline in the property crime rate extends back to 1974, the statistics bureau said.

Academics have cited many reasons to explain the decline, including the aging of baby boomers past crime-prone years, easing of the 1980s crack cocaine epidemic and a strong economy.

"The decline can't continue forever. At some point it's got to level off," said Alfred Blumstein, a professor at Carnegie-Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

Blumstein said the FBI figures may show the beginning of a trend that hasn't yet surfaced in the broader survey.

Work still ahead

Attorney General John Ashcroft called the decline "heartening" but said, "We must continue to work at preventing crime and holding accountable those who violate our laws."

Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., said a Clinton-era initiative to get a larger police presence on the streets played a major role in the drop in crime. The program, part of crime legislation Biden helped design seven years ago, envisioned putting 100,000 officers on the street.

Republican critics, however, said the program came nowhere near that number, and the Bush administration is eyeing cuts in the program called COPS, or Community Oriented Policing Services.

"This report is further proof that the strategy we put into effect in 1994 is working," said Biden, chairman of a Judiciary subcommittee that oversees national drug and crime policy. "I hope the Bush administration reads this report and revisits its decision to end effective crime fighting measures like the COPS program."

The 2000 victims survey also found:

* Victims reported 48 percent of violent crimes and 36 percent of property crimes to police.

* There were 28 violent crimes for every 1,000 Americans over age 11, down from 33 in 1999. Property crimes declined from 198 to 178 per 1,000 people.

* Overall, 53 percent of violent crime victims knew their assailants, down 1 percent from 1999.