Violence dots map of Iraq despite political optimism

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and President Bush have declared that Iraq is on the road to stability, with the Iraqi leader saying elections would be possible in all but three or four of Iraq's 18 provinces.

But the map of Iraq is scarred with violence every day. The capital is wracked by kidnappings and bombings. And September is shaping up as one of the deadliest months for American soldiers.

Westerners are fleeing Iraq with reconstruction projects half-finished. Town markets sell grisly videos of beheadings. And U.S. troops grapple with an increasingly potent insurgency that appears to have little problem recruiting fighters.

Allawi's assessment accurately describes conditions in parts of northern Iraq under Kurdish control and some Shiite towns of the south.

But his upbeat message masks the growing violence in the major cities of Baghdad and Mosul and in the tough Sunni towns north and west of the capital.

Speaking in Washington, Allawi said that of Iraq's 18 provinces, "14 to 15 are completely safe. There are no problems."

Hours later, kidnappers in Baghdad seized two Egyptian engineers working on the mobile telephone network. Four others -- Egyptians and Iraqis -- were grabbed Wednesday outside the capital.

Numbers tell a bleak story.

September has been a record month for car bombings -- more than 30, according to the U.S. military. Hundreds have died.

On average, nearly three U.S. soldiers have been killed each day this month -- the highest rate since April. Insurgent attacks are averaging 56 per day this month. In August, they averaged 87 a day -- their highest level since major combat ended in May 2003.

Allawi himself told PBS that in the past five months, 3,600 civilians have been killed by insurgents and 12,000 have been wounded.

Allawi didn't list the three provinces he acknowledged as still dangerous. But significant attacks against U.S. and Iraqi forces have occurred this month in at least six provinces -- Baghdad, Anbar, Diyala, Salahuddin, Kirkuk and Nineveh.

'Completely safe'

During a Rose Garden news conference Thursday, Allawi clicked off cities he deemed "completely safe."

"Few care to look at Iraq properly, and go from Basra to Nasiriyah, to Kut, to Diyala, to Najaf, to Karbala, to Diwaniyah, to Samawah, to Kirkuk, to Sulaymaniyah, to Dahuk, to Irbil. There are no problems," Allawi said. "It's safe. It's good."

But several of them -- notably Najaf, Nasiriyah, Kut and Karbala -- were the scenes of heavy fighting earlier this year with radical Shiite militiamen. Some officials fear clashes could erupt again because the militia has not been entirely suppressed.

Roads linking Baghdad with several of the towns Allawi mentioned are dangerous because of ambushes and kidnappings -- some by insurgents and others by common criminals. Two French journalists vanished Aug. 20 on a trip from Baghdad to Najaf.

On Friday, the day of rest across the Muslim world, clashes broke out in Ramadi and parts of the capital. A rocket slammed into a Baghdad boulevard, mortars rounds were fired at British forces in Basra and U.S. Marines launched strikes on Fallujah.

Iraqis worry that attacks will intensify as the January election nears, perhaps discouraging voters who fear attacks on polling stations.

"Allawi cannot even protect himself, so how is he going to protect the voters?" asked Arkan Mohsen, 45, an engineer in the northern city of Tikrit.

The crumbling Iraqi capital -- home to a quarter of the country's population -- is so dangerous that even the location of the U.S. Embassy is kept secret.

Open warfare has broken out a few blocks from the U.S.-controlled Green Zone, which is regularly pounded by insurgent mortar shells.

The U.S. military expects to wage a virulent campaign to re-establish control of many areas so elections can be held. Military officials, including land forces commander Lt. Gen. Thomas F. Metz, say voting may be impossible in some regions.

Nevertheless, land travel in the north has become so fraught with danger of kidnapping -- and beheading -- that Turkish truckers refuse to drive south of the safety of Iraqi Kurdistan. A Turkish contractor rebuilding a bridge near Tikrit lost four workers to ambushes.

Even if elections occur, prospects for a stable Iraq look bleak, according to many analysts, including the CIA's recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

Iraq will require years to curb the violence, with heavy support from U.S. troops, said Jeremy Binnie, a military analyst with the London consultancy Jane's.

"I would not bet any money, except at ridiculous odds, that we can prevent eventual control of Iraq by radical and hostile groups," said Richard K. Betts, a military analyst at Columbia University.

Recent surveys raise questions about Bush's assertion that only "a handful" of people are actively involved in the insurgency.

A report issued Friday by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies cited a poll showing a third of Iraqi Sunnis and 11 percent of Shiites support attacks on multinational forces.

"Violence is going up and Iraqi support for the U.S. presence is going down," said James Dobbins, a former Bush administration special envoy to Afghanistan and now a military analyst for the RAND Corp. "If we can't protect the population, we can't secure its trust and support."

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Associated Press writers Denis D. Gray in Baghdad, Yehia Barzanji in Kirkuk, and Zaki Mamoud in Tikrit contributed to this report.