The U.S. health care apparatus is so unprepared and short on resources to deal with the deadly Ebola virus that even small clusters of cases could overwhelm parts of the system, according to an Associated Press review of readiness at hospitals and other components of the emergency medical network.
Experts broadly agree a widespread nationwide outbreak is extremely unlikely, but they concur it is impossible to predict with certainty, since previous Ebola epidemics have been confined to remote areas of Africa.
And Ebola is not the only possible danger that causes concern; experts say other deadly infectious diseases -- ranging from airborne viruses such as SARS to an unforeseen new strain of the flu, to more exotic plagues like Lassa fever -- could crash the health-care system.
To assess America's ability to deal with a major outbreak, the AP examined indicators of readiness: training, staffing, funding, emergency room shortcomings, supplies and protection for health care workers. Reporters also interviewed dozens of top experts in those fields.
The results were worrisome. Supplies, training and funds are all limited, and there are concerns about whether health-care workers would refuse to treat Ebola patients.
After the death of a man suffering from Ebola in a Texas hospital and the subsequent infection of two of his nurses, medical officials and politicians are scurrying to fix preparedness shortcomings. But remedies cannot be implemented overnight. And fixes will be expensive.
Reporters frequently heard assessments that the smaller the facility, the less prepared it is to fight Ebola and other deadly infectious diseases. The U.S. has many more medium-size and small medical centers than large hospitals.
"The place I worry is: Are most small hospitals adequately prepared?" said Dr. Ashish Jha, a Harvard University health care quality specialist. "It clearly depends."
Other findings:
"We're really going to have to step up our game if we are going to deal with hemorrhagic fevers in this country," said Lawrence Gostin, a global health law expert at Georgetown University.
A high-ranking official at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said Wednesday the government does not expect every hospital in America to be able to treat an Ebola patient, but "every hospital has to be able to recognize, isolate and use the highest level of personal protective equipment until they can transfer that patient."
"The moment anyone has an Ebola patient, CDC will have a team on the ground within a matter of hours to help that hospital," Dr. Nicole Lurie, the HHS assistant secretary for preparedness and response, said Wednesday. She acknowledged "some spot shortages of personal protective equipment" but said many kinds "'are still pretty widely available" and that manufacturers are ramping up production.
AP national investigative reporters Holbrook Mohr in Jackson, Mississippi; Michael Kunzelman in Baton Rouge, Louisiana; and David B. Caruso in New York contributed to this story.
The AP National Investigative Team can be reached at investigate(at)ap.org
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