THE IBEN BROWNING PREDICTION: 10 YEARS LATER; AND STILL, WE WAIT

It has been 10 years since the late Iben Browning predicted the New Madrid Fault would catastrophically shift, and there's been nothing but minor wiggles since.

The buildings of Cape Girardeau and New Madrid, Mo., are not smoldering ruins. Interstate 55 is not a mangled strip of broken asphalt. The media circus has long since passed, and Southeast Missourians have moved on with their lives. People continue to live and run businesses in the Bootheel. But the threat of a massive quake remains.

Browning, a climatologist from New Mexico with no formal training in seismology, forecast a 50-50 chance of a major earthquake occurring along the New Madrid fault line for five days beginning December 1, 1990. His prediction was based on the theory that particular alignments of the sun cause tidal stresses on the Earth, leading to earthquakes.

Although the scientific community scoffed at Browning's prediction, the fact that nobody could deny a chance The Big One would strike raised the media's bloodlust. Legions of reporters -- including those from the three major American television networks and CNN -- rushed to New Madrid. For days, it seemed there were more journalists in the Bootheel town than the 3,000 residents. The streets were choked with satellite uplink trucks.

Some area merchants met the explosion of out-of-towners and their tourist dollars with a sense of humor. A New Madrid entrepreneur sold $10 T-shirts bearing the slogans "It's not my fault" and "Visit historic New Madrid (while it's still here)". Taverns held "shake, rattle, and roll" parties.

New Madrid farmer Trey Lawfield recalled walking down the street, entering his home, turning on the television, and seeing time-delayed footage of himself on CNN walking down the street.

And Butch Lawfield, Trey's uncle, recalled walking into a local bar and seeing strangers occupying the chairs that had forever been filled by locals.

"There wasn't a person in there from New Madrid," he said.

Mark Baker, the mayor of New Madrid, says the anniversary week of the Browning scare has come and gone every year since 1990, and nobody's paid it much attention.

"I went down to Point Pleasant last year on Dec. 3 and killed three mallards," Baker said. "I think everyone has a plan in the back of their mind, but nobody worries about it."

The New Madrid streets where camera crews and journalists once circled like prowling animals are calm these days. The occasional pickup rolls past the John Deere store and the high school and pulls into the gravel outside Rosie's Restaurant for the lunch buffet.

Baker said he credits the Browning scare with bringing the fault to everyone's attention.

Nowadays, said the mayor, New Madrid is looking toward recovering from the inevitable big temblor. He said the town has a reserve of $2 million to begin replacing the infrastructure expected to be devastated when The Big One hits.

The severity of the damage will depend, in part, on the height of the Mississippi River at the time, he said, but regardless, New Madrid will survive.

"If the river's up, it will be worse than if it isn't. If the levee breaks, we're in for it," Baker said. "But we all have boats. We all have four-wheelers. Everybody's got a deep freezer with more food than they know what to do with."

The fault line

So the question becomes: Ten years after the Browning scare, are we really living on borrowed time?

The Southeast Missouri State University Center for Earthquake Studies does not sugarcoat the answer: There is a fair chance in the next 40 years, The Big One will strike. That is, capital-B Big. Earth shaking like in a disaster movie Big.

But the good news is, the people in the government who should be paying attention to the threat are paying attention. And the other good news, sort of, is that you are more likely to come to harm driving your car.

The New Madrid Fault system extends 120 miles from the area of Charleston, Mo. and Cairo, Ill., south through New Madrid and Caruthersville, Mo., following Interstate 55, and down to Marked Tree, Arkansas. The system crosses five state lines, the SEMO Center for Earthquake Studies reports, and cuts across the Mississippi River in three places and the Ohio River in two places.

The fault is active, averaging more than 200 measured seismic events per year (magnitude 1.0 or more), or about 20 per month. Tremors large enough to be felt (magnitude 2.5 to 3.0) are noted annually. About every 18 months, the fault releases a shock of 4.0 or more, capable of local minor damage.

The highest earthquake risk in the United States outside the West Coast is along the New Madrid Fault, the center reports. A major earthquake in this area (7.5 or greater) happens every 200 to 300 years. There is a 25 percent chance of such a disaster occurring by 2040.

A New Madrid Fault rupture this size would be felt throughout half the United States. Missouri alone could anticipate losses of at least $6 billion from such an event.

Out of the spotlight

David Creech, manager of the Audio 1 pawn and stereo shop in Cape Girardeau, posted a sign outside his business ten years ago that read, "Is Dr. Browning right?" and listed a countdown of days until Browning's Big One.

In the year 2000, Creech said, The Big One is out of mind unless the media reminds people of it.

"I just don't think people think about it unless it's brought to their attention. ... Back then, we were constantly reminded on a daily, even hourly basis, the event was supposedly coming," said Creech. "It was the same thing with Y2K a year ago."

Creech said he did not assemble a stockpile of emergency disaster supplies during the Browning scare, and he still hasn't.

"Even when that was happening, my parents stored water. But I didn't. I still don't. You probably should," he said.

During a tour of the Bootheel in 1990, then-governor John Ashcroft reviewed the Cape Girardeau home of Jim Watkins to see the earthquake protection measures Watkins had taken. The point that Ashcroft stressed to Southeast Missourians was "preparedness rather than panic."

Last week, Watkins recalled the visit.

"When you have special company, you hide everything. But when I took him to the basement, I couldn't hide anything," Watkins said. "That type of celebrity guest you don't get every day."

Watkins, a retired principal, reported he still has his household earthquake protection measures in full effect. His water heater is reinforced with braces. Strings across his shelves hold knick-knacks and books in place, he said. Picture frames are Velcro-ed to the walls. And Watkins said he maintains an emergency kit of water, food, and medical supplies.

"I'd recommend everyone put together a disaster kit," he said. "I'm not a doomsday person. I'm not trying to say the end of the world is near. But historically, it has happened. It will happen again. And the only thing we can do is be as prepared as possible."

Richard Aufdenberg of Farm Bureau Insurance Services reported that most insurers used to charge about a five percent deductible for houses carrying earthquake insurance. Then the Browning scare came along, and the insurance companies starting calculating their possible exposure.

"After the earthquake scare of 1990, it went up to about 10 percent deductibles. But on brick houses, it's a 15 percent deducible," he said.

When The Big One hits, said Aufdenberg, "It's going to be catastrophic to the insurance companies."

Most area lending institutions require borrowers to obtain earthquake insurance for customers seeking home loans, he said.

Earthquake insurance on a $100,000, 50-year-old brick home in Cape Girardeau, also covered for $50,000 in contents, runs about $47 per year with his company, said Aufdenberg.

It happened before

Most locals are abundantly familiar with accounts of the New Madrid Fault's shift on Dec. 16, 1811, at 2 a.m. Southeast Missouri shook with an estimated magnitude of 8.8, possibly the most severe earthquake ever witnessed. The energy released was the equivalent of 12,000 Hiroshima-sized atomic blasts, or 150 million tons of TNT.

Eyewitnesses wrote that the earth rose and fell like a long, slow swell of the sea. The waters of the Mississippi receded, beaching boats on the riverbed, then overflowed with a torrential wave, smashing the boats, consuming islands and uprooting trees. Reportedly, in an area south of New Madrid, the river flowed backward for several days.

Tremors continued for three months, with two large aftershocks and hundreds of smaller aftershocks.

In the winter of 1812, an aftershock knocked out the buildings of Caruthersville, forcing hundreds of refugees to seek shelter in Hayti, walking miles in freezing, knee-high floodwater.

But despite these graphic anecdotes, not all the experts are fretful at the prospect of the New Madrid fault shifting severely again.

"I would not lose any sleep over it," said Bob Herrmann, professor of geophysics at St. Louis University and director of the SLU Earthquake Center. "People in California don't lose any sleep over it.

"The reason why they don't, is they know what to do. There are mechanisms in place to help people recover. This natural disaster is being taken seriously by the people in the government who are responsible for these things. It is not being ignored."

Statistically, it is much more dangerous to drive a car, said the professor.

"A magnitude 6 earthquake hits California once every 10 years, and they seem to survive pretty well," he said.

A local example of protection mechanisms being in place is the commercial building codes in Cape Girardeau. Such structures must be built following seismic regulations designed to make the buildings more resilient in a quake.

"In regulations, we're comparable to California or Hawaii, or any other earthquake-prone state," said Tarryl Booker, Cape Girardeau's Director of Inspection Services.

The main concept behind the seismic regulations, said Booker, is in a quake, to have the building moving as one unit instead of as four or five separate wall, floor, and ceiling units. To achieve this, commercial structures in town must be reinforced with metal diaphragms and ground anchors, Booker said.

Mark Winkler, the Federal Emergency Management Agency Cape Girardeau-area coordinator, explained that once FEMA enters any earthquake relief efforts, resources can be diverted from public agencies across the nation. The Missouri National Guard military police can be activated to provide security for devastated areas, Winkler said.

"We have tried to plan for the worst case scenario, the cataclysmic earthquake event," said Winkler. "We've had to identify a long list of resources that would be needed, a lengthy list of personnel that would be needed, and other numerous supplies. ... Therefore, we feel we should be covered for the worst."

Preparing families

The University of Missouri Southern TeleCommunity and Resource Center opened in Portageville, Mo., in March. STRC's mission includes educating the public on the threat presented by the New Madrid Fault, and conducting seismic research.

Raymond Nabors, coordinator of the STCRC, said the idea behind Browning's prediction should not be dismissed.

"He never said he was 100 percent positive on an exact day. ... In other words, it could be plus or minus a decade," said Nabors. "What is significant about this particular year, is we have now estimated we have enough stress built up in the fault that we are now in the 7-point (magnitude) window."

A magnitude 7.0 quake means many area roads will not be passable by car, said Nabors. Bridges could be knocked out. Fuel and water lines may be broken. It could take up to a week for relief supplies routed from cities to the west like Rolla, Mo., and Springfield, Mo. to reach the Bootheel's rural areas, Nabors said.

"Families need to be prepared for it," he said.

With advance preparation, Nabors advised, the impact of a major earthquake on your family can be reduced. The STCRC recommends that you prepare an emergency supply kit.

The Big One, said Nabors, is inevitable.

"It's going to happen," he said. "It's just a matter of when."

The SLU Earthquake Center, which maintains a regularly updated Web listing of regional earthquakes, reported three temblors recently. On Oct. 1, a 2.5-magnitude quake was reported in the region of Grandin, Mo. On Oct. 3, a 2.5-magnitude quake was reported in New Madrid. On Nov. 4, a 1.7-magnitude quake was reported in Steele, Mo.

BE PREPARED

The University of Missouri Southern TeleCommunity and Resource Center recommends that you prepare an earthquake emergency supply kit, to maintain life for 72 hours to one week. The kit should contain the following items:

* Flashlights with extra batteries. One of these flashlights should be next to your bed. After an earthquake, never use matches or candles until you are certain no gas leak exists.

* Portable radio with spare batteries. Telephones could be out of order, or could be reserved for emergency use only, so the radio will be your best source of information.

* First aid kit.

* Fire extinguisher.

* Non-perishable food. Canned goods, canned juices, dried cereals and fruits, and non-salted nuts for a one-week period, and a mechanical can opener.

* Water. Store in an airtight container, and replace the water about every six months. Store at least 6 gallons of water per person for a one-week period.

* Tools. A pipe wrench and adjustable wrenches should be available for turning off gas and water mains. Family members should be taught where and how to shut off electricity, and gas and water mains.