St. Louis: Census Bureau's numbers don't add up

ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Challenging the U.S. Census Bureau's population estimate for St. Louis has become an annual exercise at City Hall, and this year will be no different.

City leaders aren't buying the Census Bureau's most recent estimate that St. Louis lost more than 3,000 residents between 2006 and 2007, with a population of 350,759 as of July 1, 2007.

As they have for the last several years, city leaders dispute the bureau's numbers. They say the population has increased to 356,000.

Why?

"Drive around," said Don Roe, the city's acting director of planning and urban design.

"The good news is that during this decade, construction in single-family units, and new multi-family units has grown, and older buildings are finding new life as conversions into residential units."

Roe said the city will file its fifth consecutive challenge before the Oct. 1 deadline. The Census Bureau has concurred with each of the city's previous four challenges.

The city's methodology differs from the Census Bureau's, which relies on the last Census count, birth and death data, and address changes on federal income tax returns.

The city has based its successful challenges over the last four years on city housing permits, including conversion of warehouses to lofts.

The bureau has accepted the new numbers every time, concluding the city proved its case.

"The housing method is an alternative to our estimate," Census Bureau demographer Greg Harper said. "We'll have to wait until the next census to see who has the best method."

Jeff Rainford, chief of staff to Mayor Francis Slay, said the numbers are important because "we measure everything" with them.

"They show the city is making progress, that people are coming back to the city, that it's growing again," he said. "Success breeds success."

The Census Bureau said dozens of cities challenge their population estimates. Last year alone, the bureau changed the estimates for 60 cities that made convincing arguments.

Using the Census Bureau's population estimates, St. Louis is near the bottom in a ranking of cities with the fastest rate of increase among 260 with 100,000 or more people. Put another way, St. Louis comes in as the city with the 13th-fastest rate of loss.

Rainford said the city is experiencing steady, not explosive growth, a turnaround from the five-decade-old perception that the city was a place to get away from.

He said urban living is a lifestyle choice embraced by people who want to live, work and play in the same neighborhood. High gas prices can only accelerate that.

The city has its challenges, he said, namely problems in the public schools and a negative perception by many in suburbia.

But empty nesters, young people and other urban pioneers are turning around neighborhoods block by block in places like Old North St. Louis, Benton Park and Tower Grove South.

Noting that the Census Bureau has concurred with each of the city's past four challenges, Rainford said, "people really are choosing the city."

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On the Net:

U.S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/