Speedy Syrian departure from Lebanon may lead to power, security vacuum

BEIRUT, Lebanon -- A speedy Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon may fulfill the dreams of many Lebanese, but lifting the tight lid Syria has kept on its smaller neighbor carries risks: a security vacuum and possible return to sectarian disputes that bedeviled this country throughout its history.

The outgoing pro-Syrian premier even warned that the Lebanese military, built up by the Syrians, could again splinter into warring factions -- a comment that angered some Lebanese and prompted the army to insist it is capable of maintaining unity.

Another question is how Hezbollah, the anti-Israeli guerrilla movement based in southern Lebanon, would react to the withdrawal of Syria, one of its principal backers. The well-armed Shiite militia, which is also supported by Iran, has so far stayed out of the fray in Lebanon's political crisis -- but could feel its position is threatened if Damascus pulls out.

The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a Muslim, has united Lebanese Christians and Muslims in grief and anger at Syria and its allied Lebanese government, which the opposition accuses of involvement in his killing.

As the world pressed on with its demands -- President Bush on Wednesday pointedly ordered Syria out of Lebanon in the strongest statement yet -- the risk remains that such unprecedented unity could evaporate if Syrian forces leave and Lebanese return to their sectarian-based fractious politics.

In a sign of Lebanon's volatility, followers of ex-Prime Minister Omar Karami targeted a rival politician's office in his hometown of Tripoli on Monday, leaving one person dead.

Syria has entered the fray many times during Lebanon's recent history by quelling clashes, removing Lebanese political opponents and installing government and military allies.

In 1976, the first year of a 15-year civil war, Syrian forces crossed into Lebanon to save Christians from possible defeat at the hands of Muslim and Palestinian-backed leftist forces.

In 1987, Muslim leaders requested Syrian troops move into Muslim west Beirut to stop militia street fighting. In July, Syria's top general here intervened after Lebanese troops killed six Shiite Muslim rioters to prevent a riot from spreading into Shiite-army fighting.

"If Syria leaves Lebanon uncomfortable, will our situation be stable?" warned Interior Minister Suleiman Franjieh, a staunch pro-Syrian. If Syria withdraws, he added last week, "it could say it is not responsible for security in this country, and tomorrow every party begins to do what it wants -- and we know the Lebanese if they do what they want in politics. Within a week we will tear each other up."

A Syrian official alluded to possible security breaches. Information Minister Mahdi Dakhlallah said after Hariri's assassination that previous Syrian withdrawals from Lebanese areas "resulted in a security vacuum that led to the explosions."

Syria has long acted as a buffer, mediating political disputes and sending security forces to back Lebanese troops. They have also curbed Muslim militants as they did in Syria, a nation ruled by a secular Baath party that sees militant Islam as a threat.

Last week, Karami enraged many by saying a Syrian withdrawal and implementation of a U.N. resolution to disarm anti-Israeli Hezbollah militants could reflect on Lebanon's army, which broke apart along sectarian lines during the civil war and was rebuilt with Syrian help to a force of 70,000 after the conflict.

The army "is from the people and the people are divided," Karami said. "We've tried this before and the army disintegrated. Should we again go through this experience of this magnitude and damage?"

Karami also asked who would disarm Shiite Hezbollah guerillas if Syria leaves.

Hezbollah has stayed on the sidelines of Lebanon's recent polarization, but -- with Syria's support -- it has blocked attempts to send the Lebanese army into its territory in southern Lebanon, along the border with Israel, and refused to disarm until the conflict with Israel is resolved.

If an anti-Syrian government comes to power in Beirut and resolves to move its military into the south, Hezbollah could be roused to action.

Farid El-Khazen, chairman of the American University of Beirut's political studies department, did not predict a return of civil war-era sectarian conflict.

"Never before has Lebanon been as united as it is today," he said. "The unprecedented national consciousness on the issue of Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon has never been as strong since that formation of the state of Lebanon in the 1920s."

But As'ad AbuKhalil, a Lebanese political science professor at California State University, warned of possible instability.

"This won't be Ukraine of 2004, but maybe Lebanon of 1975," AbuKhalil said, referring to Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" that overturned a fraudulent election and circa-1975 Lebanon, which was wracked by political disputes.

But Lebanon's military is sounding optimistic.

Armed forces Gen. Michel Suleiman, in apparent response to Karami's comments, said the army "faced grave events and emerged more cohesive to the point that it became a model in national unity."