Soybean shortage may raise food prices

From staff and wire reports

A soybean shortage could push prices a bit higher this summer for consumer items ranging from baby food to frozen desserts.

Poor rainfall and attacks by sap-sucking aphids last year have driven inventories down to their lowest level in more than three decades.

"We are destined to, some would call it, run out of soybeans at our current usage rate," said Purdue University agricultural economist Chris Hurt. "We cannot continue to use them at the rate we are."

In August, the nation could be "down to stuff being delivered at that moment," said Paul Aho of Storrs, Conn., an agricultural economic analyst.

Agronomy specialist Gerald Bryan with the southeast region of the University of Missouri Extension Office said he knows nothing of aphids significantly affecting local crops. He also said that although area soybean yields were down per acre, a general increase in acreage planted compensated to bring total production in this area close to last year's. The problem, he said, is that since domestic usage is up, farmers are getting caught in the crunch.

America could squeak by, satisfying its needs for food and livestock feeds, the experts say. But it would have "the absolute minimum working stocks," said Keith Collins, the Agriculture Department's chief economist.

Shoppers might not see a big impact, but livestock producers may have to absorb record higher costs, said Steve Meyer, president of Paragon Economics of Des Moines, Iowa, an economic consultant to the hog industry.

Demand for meat is strong, however, due in part to the popularity of Atkins-style high-protein diets. Daniel A. Sumner, professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of California, Davis, expected some of the higher feed costs to be passed along to consumers.

Although consumers might not realize it, soybean oil or meal are important ingredients of many processed foods, everything from frozen desserts and coffee whiteners to baby food and salad dressings. Sometimes it's the main ingredient, such as tofu. More often it's a filler, such as in milkshakes, snack foods, baked goods and hamburger extender.

Staff writer Tony Rehagen contributed to this report.