SIGNS OF WINTER

The Woolly Worms are mostly brown this year -- that's good.

The persimmon seeds carry spoon designs -- that's bad.

So -- what is winter going to be like in Southeast Missouri?

Only time will tell if the winter of 1997-98 is going to call for snow boots or sno cones.

Still, predicting the winter weather is a time-honored practice for "experts" of all sorts.

Jessica Walter, North Elementary School's fifth-grade expert, says this year's spoon designs in persimmons "are everywhere." Walter has been searching for persimmon seeds the past week for a classroom experiment on weather legends.

"It looks like we'll be scooping snow," said Martha Short, Jessica's teacher in the Jackson R-2 School District. "Every seed found this year has spoon designs."

Weather legend has it that each persimmon seed contains a design of a kitchen silverware -- spoon, fork, or knife.

According to the legend, if the white, middle part of the seed is shaped like a spoon, expect plenty of snow to shovel during the winter. If a fork design is found, snow will be light, and if a knife design is present, it means a cutting-cold winter.

"The designs are easy to spot when the seed is split," said Short. Persimmons used should be those that have recently fallen from a tree.

The use of animals, insects and plants in predicting weather is part of folklore, based on observations that have been handed down from generation to generation. Students at North Elementary School in Fruitland have studied persimmons seeds, walnuts, woolly worms and other weather "predicting" factors over the past few years.

Some call them old wives' tales. Others swear by their accuracy.

What has evolved is "unscientific" weather forecasting v. the "scientific" predictions.

Then, there are the weather forecasts of another "expert," the `Old Farmer's Almanac,' a 205-year publication founded in 1792 and published every year since.

Editors of the Almanac say their forecasts are determined by the use of a "secret formula," devised by the founder of the publication and enhanced by the most modern scientific calculations based on solar activity.

The Almanac claims 80 percent accuracy on a season basis, and its editors claim that some people are surprised to learn that the publication's forecasts are based completely on science, not folklore.

But, some weather predictors claim to 80 percent weather-forecasting accuracy with the granddaddy of all winter weather prognosticators, the woolly worm, or caterpillar as some call them.

In one sector of the nation, a "Woolly Worm Festival" is held each October, highlighted by a caterpillar race, and an annual winter forecast. The Farmer's Almanac this year touched on the Banner Elk., N.C., festival, where Charles Von Cannon annually inspects the champion of the woolly worm race, and announces his forecast.

Cannon, like numerous other woolly worm enthusiasts, counts each of the 13 segments of the woolly worm as a week of winter, and correlates the blacks segments at the front and rear of the caterpillar as the beginning and end of winter -- the more black segments the worse the winter, and vice versa, with the harshest weather occurring during the black-segments weeks.

Cannon claims about 70 percent accuracy with his predictions.

But, what do you do about a completely light woolly worm?

Elementary school classes, like the fifth grade at North Elementary, have made woolly bear forecasting into annual science projects. And, this year, students have brought in woolly worms ranging from an almost total blonde color to worms with black front and rear segments and near blonde to brown colors in the middle.

The overall forecast from the youngsters:

"A relatively mild winter with snow."

The woolly worms, say the students, indicate milder temperatures, but the persimmon seeds indicate snow and plenty of it.

One entomologist says there could be, in fact, a link between winter severity and the brown band of the woolly bear caterpillar. The band, he said, could say something about a heavy winter, or an early spring, but...what it's telling you, he says, is about the previous year. Most scientists discount the folklore of the woolly bear predictions as just that, "folklore," saying the woolly bears and other so-called weather indicators -- persimmon seeds, how thick the corn husk are, and how high above the ground wasps build their nest -- are simply myths.

Many may scoff at the woolly bear's ability to foretell what the winter will be, but there are just as many who put stock in what its colored bands have to say each fall.

For those who remain skeptical, consider this: Over the past six years woolly worms have correctly predicted weather patterns in Southeast Missouri.

One of those predictions was a mixed one, as the two-colored worms predicted a cool start and warm finish. That year, 1991, wound up as one of the warmest in nearly 50 years in Cape Girardeau.

And during one five-year period, from 1948 through 1953, a former curator of the Department of Insects and Spiders, American Museum of Natural History, New York City, used from 40 to 70 caterpillars collected from Bear Mountain, N.Y., to conduct a five-year study. The woolly worms were right in predicting the four winters, but were wrong in predicting a colder winter the fifth year.

This year?

The woolly bear could be right. The National Weather Service is predicting normal temperatures and precipitation levels. The only difference in the forecast is that the weather service is not calling for that initial cold spike. The Farmer's Almanac? It, too, is calling for a mild winter.

FORECASTING THE WEATHER

Some call them old wives' tales. Others swear by their accuracy. No matter how you look at the signs, winter is coming.

Folling are some of the (unscientific) signs of winter and/or other weather signs.

ANIMALS & INSECTS

If squirrels start gathering nuts in mid-September, better order up some extra firewood.

If Wooly Bears (worms) are dark all over, expect a cold winter.

Birds huddling on the ground, cold weather will abound.

Crickets in the chimney, cold weather is coming.

If rabbits, horses, sheep, mules or dogs have thicker fur or hair, it's time to line your own nest.

If screech owls sound like women crying, cold weather is ahead.

When "Katydids" start hollering, expect a killing frost three months later.

Ants build their hills high to keep above coming snows.

Hoot owls heard late in the fall mean a bad winter is coming.

If there are a lot of spiders in the fall, Miss Muffet watch out.

BAD WINTER

It will be a bad winter if...

Carrots grow deep.

Sweet potatoes have a tougher skin.

Onions have more layers.

Black walnuts and hickory nuts have a heavy shell.

Tree bark is heaviest on the north side.

Corn shucks are tighter around the ears of the corn.

If it frosts before Nov. 23.

A long, hot summer means a long, cold winter.

The first 12 days after Christmas indicate what each month of the new year will be like.

FORECASTING RAIN

It will rain if...

Tree leaves show their backs.

The cows come home from the pasture early in the day.

Ants close the hole to their ant hill.

If earthworms come to the surface of the ground.

If the birds fly low.

If smoke curls downward.

If the cat plays more than usual.