Shiites lead U.S.-backed Iraqi council

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Shiite Muslims, long oppressed by Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated government, will hold a commanding majority on a political council U.S. authorities will set up this month as a forerunner to a new Iraqi government, The Associated Press has learned.

The governing council of 25-30 leading Iraqis will be the first step in a 12-to-15 month process that will likely involve a constitutional referendum followed by the first free elections in Iraq in decades, according to a senior Western diplomat who laid out the blueprint of Iraq's path to democracy.

The panel will return some control back to Iraqis, though its composition is a sensitive matter. While Shiites are clamoring for a prominent role, Sunnis worry that an Iran-style Shiite theocracy could take hold and push them to the fringes of power.

The U.S.-led provisional government is anxious to get an Iraqi council in place in order to dispel a common perception here that America's mission amounts to colonization rather than liberation. U.S. troops have been the target of a growing insurgency -- and officials say an Iraqi administration could help stabilize the volatile security situation.

A Shiite-dominated government would sweep in a sea of change for Iraq, which has been ruled by the Sunni minority since the days of Ottoman Turkish rule. Shiites, who make up at least 60 percent of Iraq's population of 24 million, have often rebelled against Sunni rulers, but never successfully.

In the last Shiite uprising -- after the 1991 Gulf War that left Saddam in power -- Shiite leaders were hanged from lamp posts and thousands were killed.

The diplomat, who spoke on condition his name not be used, said Britain and the United States would never allow a fundamentalist Shiite government in Iraq. At the same time, he said the council should reflect the demographics of the country, with Shiites in the lead role, and minority Sunnis and Kurds evenly represented.

"There will be a slight Shiite majority, something like 60-20-20," he said, referring to the percentage of council members coming from Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish groups.

L. Paul Bremer, Iraq's U.S. civilian administrator, had promised to set up the council by July 15. He said it would be consulted on all major decisions and given the power to name ministers and fill other senior positions. But on Saturday, he left open the possibility the date could be pushed back.

"In the next two weeks I expect to see an Iraqi governing council established. This council will have real power and real responsibilities from the very start," he said.

Political and religious leaders have sharply criticized delays in setting up an Iraqi government.

Officials close to the process say the timetable was moved back at the behest of local Iraqi leaders who felt they were being overshadowed by the likes of Ahmed Chalabi, leader of the Iraqi National Council, and former foreign minister Adnan Pachachi, heavy-hitters on the international stage who spent most of the Saddam years abroad.

"All of these external parties will have a representative, but the majority of the council will be internal," said the diplomat, referring to Iraqis who remained in the country rather than go into exile during Saddam's reign.

The council will also give a prominent voice to women, and include representation of Iraqi Christians and other religious minorities. Officials will not disclose specific names of council members, saying negotiations are delicate and ongoing.

Shiite leaders have been among the most vocal critics of the proposed governing council, saying a council made up of elites hand-picked by Bremer would have no more legitimacy than the current provisional administration. Last week, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, one of Iraq's most influential Shiite leaders, issued a fatwa, or religious edict, denouncing plans for any council picked by the Americans.

Another leading Shiite voice, Hamid al-Bayati of the powerful Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution, told AP from his London office that the council will be "weak and illegitimate" and "have no credibility whatsoever."

According to the diplomat, Iraqis will have some say as to the makeup of the council, but he acknowledged participants must be willing to accept the coalition's main goals for Iraq.

"It is a fine line we are treading. If we take too much control and hand pick the council, everybody will say they are coalition puppets," he said in an interview Friday. "But if the Iraqis discuss it among themselves ... you might find there are elements that just aren't interested in constructing a democratic system."

Taking the lead

A spokesman for Pachachi, an elderly former Sunni politician who recently returned from exile, told the AP his movement was prepared to see Shiites take the lead on the council.

"We think that Iraqi Shiites should play a major role and we have no objections to that," said the spokesman, Bassil al-Naqib. "We should rise above sectarian differences, which are wrong and are part of the legacy of Saddam."

Two to three weeks after the governing council is established, a separate committee will be given about six weeks to form a 200-to-250 strong constitutional convention, which will decide what form of government Iraq should have.

If all goes well, the constitutional convention will be in place by mid- to late-September.