Shiite allies A change in Iraq's leadership could change entir

TEHRAN, Iran -- For the moment, bus caravans head into the desert each dawn carrying Shiite Muslim pilgrims toward holy sites in Iraq. But this ancient journey has often been blocked by modern wars.

The next conflict -- if it comes -- may do even more than disrupt spiritual travels between the world's main Shiite populations, some experts say.

It could start to unravel the taut Shiite weave of religion, politics and militancy that supports some heavyweight features of the Middle East: Iran's theocracy and guerrillas fighting Israel.

Iran, the Shiite heartland, sits squarely at the center of the possible fallout.

A pro-Western government in Baghdad -- with key roles for Iraq's majority Shiites -- could become a beacon for moderate Shiite clerics and scholars in Iran opposing the iron-fist rule of the establishment. This could expand the reformist base and draw important religious figures into the struggle, observers say.

Challenge to hard-line Iran

"A new government in Iraq will bring changes to the entire Islamic world, not just Iran," said Mohammed Abdel Jabar, a former leader of al-Dawa, an Iraqi Shiite militant group opposing Saddam. "Iraqi Shiites will pay a big role in these changes."

Kivanc Galip Over, a regional analyst at the Diplomatic Observer web site in Turkey, said that's just what Iran fears -- "a new Shiite point of reference -- one that is allied with America. It could bring big complications in their battles with reformers."

Under Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led regime -- which fought a 1980-88 war with Iran -- Shiites are widely excluded from power and privileges. Iran hosts the leadership of a main Iraqi Shiite militia, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which joined a failed uprising against Saddam after the 1991 Gulf War.

But the group's leader, Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, acknowledged any post-Saddam government would undoubtedly move into the Western sphere.

Sunnis and Shiites

"The clerics would be like everyone else ... It would be democracy with Islamic values," said al-Hakim.

That's precisely the goal Iran's reformist leaders have for their own country. They accuse the non-elected rulers of hoarding power and smothering dissent.

"A Western-style government in Baghdad with big Shiite participation could be a disaster for Iran's own system," said Hajir Teimourian, a London-based Iranian political commentator. "There would be a clear alternative -- with Shiites taking part -- right next door."

Others, however, believe Iranians reformers could suffer if there are heavy American fingerprints on a post-Saddam leadership. Many Iranians are uneasy over U.S. influence and ruling clerics could rally their support -- as they did against reformers after President Bush included Iran in his "axis of evil" last year.

"The increased presence of the United States on Iran's borders will only create more problems for reformers," said Mohsen Kadivar, a professor at Tarbiat-e-Modarres University in Tehran, who was jailed in 1999 for criticism of the ruling establishment.

Outside Iran, two Shiite poles -- one oriented to the West and the other toward Iran -- could shake up Iran's control of some veteran anti-Israel factions. Iran bankrolls groups such as Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Palestinian-led Islamic Jihad, which the United States and other Western nations consider part of terrorist networks.

"There could be a moderating effect if Shiites would not have to look only to Iran," said Teimourian.

The European Union is already urging Iran to take an unprecedented step to help restart the Middle East peace process.

Chris Patten, the EU's commissioner for external affairs, said Iran should use its "influence to bear on Palestinian groups in order to help put the brakes on the cycle of violence." The reward for this and other reforms: a possible trade pact with the 15-nation EU.