Senate leader sees increased likelihood that Saddam's alive

WASHINGTON -- It is increasingly likely that Saddam Hussein is alive, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee said Sunday.

The inability to prove that the deposed Iraqi president and his sons are dead or in custody could mean "a long, hot summer" for U.S. troops in Iraq, said Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan.

In an audiotape aired Friday on the Arab television station Al-Jazeera, a person purporting to be Saddam said he is in Iraq and directing attacks on American forces. He rallied Iraqis to help resistance against the U.S.-led occupation.

The CIA is reviewing the tape.

Roberts, who recently returned from a trip to Iraq, put the odds that Saddam is alive at "about 70-30, according to the intelligence sources we have." He added: "I think we pretty well changed our mind from a 50-50 or whether he was or not."

The senator said the Iraqi people are hearing from Saddam's loyalists that the former president is alive, and that is contributing to the unrest in Iraq after the U.S.-led invasion.

"If we can prove that Saddam Hussein is killed or captured, plus his two sons, we're miles ahead in this," Roberts told CNN's "Late Edition."

"If not, it's going to be a long, hot summer."

During his trip, Roberts said, he detected that "the fear on the part of the average Iraqi citizen is absolutely palpable. You can see it" as a result of the uncertainty about Saddam's fate.

'A big-ticket item'

"So it is a big-ticket item for us if we're going to eliminate the fear and be successful over the next 100 days with all the attacks against Americans. We have to kill or capture Saddam and his two sons."

The committee's top Democrat, Sen. Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, was in Iraq with Roberts and spoke of "the looming presence" of Saddam.

"I assume until, you know, clearly given proof otherwise that he is alive, that his sons are alive," Rockefeller said.

"I think his being alive is a terrible, terrible obstacle to what we're trying to do there."

Hard evidence on Saddam's whereabouts and status has been lacking in the weeks since the major fighting ended. U.S. intelligence analysts believe he is alive, probably still in Iraq.

The United States has offered $25 million for information leading to the capture or confirmation of the death of the ousted Iraqi leader.