SEMO uses programs, location to prepare for enrollment cliff

While student enrollment has declined at Southeast Missouri State University (SEMO) over the last decade, it's far from the only university showing such trends.

Full-time and equivalent enrollment at SEMO has declined 18% since a high in 2014, according to Debbie Below, vice president for Enrollment Management and Student Success. This equates to a drop from 9,478 students then to 7,748 in 2022.

Overall, a fall 2023 census showed were 9,686 graduate and undergraduate students at SEMO.

Full-time and equivalent enrollment in all Missouri public schools has declined by 20% from 2014 to 2021.

A projected enrollment cliff is likely to see such numbers decrease even more in the near future.

The cliff is what projections show to be a three-pronged hit to college enrollment starting around 2025.

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) groups SEMO with more than a dozen other comparable peer schools. Many of them are facing similar, or even greater, enrollment declines.

Southern Illinois University had a fall enrollment just shy of 18,000 in 2014; in 2021, their fall enrollment was less than 11,300. The University of Central Missouri saw fall enrollment decline from 13,379 to 10,530 then. Fall enrollment at Murray State University in Kentucky fell from 11,207 to 9,414.

Below said SEMO's size, cost and location are a few things in its favor that could improve enrollment.

"We are fortunate to be located in what I consider to be an idealistic college town. Cape Girardeau is just the perfect setting for a traditional university environment like ours," she said.

The university attracts students primarily from Missouri and Illinois, but also other states and other countries.

In fact, international enrollment has reached its highest level in close to a decade. According to the university's fact books logs, the number of international students continually grew following the recession, from 314 in 2008 to 1,131 in 2015.

International numbers took a steady dip in the latter half of the deade, down to a pandemic-stricken low of 476 in 2020.

However, international students are returning to the university in droves; 1,068 attended SEMO in 2022.

Causes

The three setbacks for university enrollment are dropping high school graduation rates, fewer high school graduates choosing to attend college and a decrease in high school seniors overall due to declining birth rates following the "Great Recession" of the late 2000s.

According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education's annual "Knocking at the College Door" report, 37 of the 50 states are projected to have fewer high school graduates in 2037 than they did in 2019.

Missouri is projected to have 7% fewer high school graduates over that timeframe.

"We've been seeing an enrollment decline nationwide now. We've been certainly seeing it in Missouri for at least eight years," Below said.

Around 70% of high school graduates pursued higher education in 2016, according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Just 62% of them did in 2021.

"As work opportunities have become more attractive to students who are just finishing high school, it can be a difficult decision to make that commitment to invest in your education," Below said. "Particularly when we consider cost of education, it can be challenging. What's most important is that we think about the investment we're making in ourselves and the opportunity to set yourself up with that background and education that allows you to advance in your career long-term."

Below said the benefits of attending university often aren't fully realized at first, but that an educational background can help students in their chosen career fields. For most careers, she added, students can find classes to help understand them better at SEMO.

"We spend a lot of time giving students hands-on experience here to prepare them for jobs," she said. "Are they going to be ready to walk in on Day 1 and know exactly how to do that job? Well, of course not. You have to learn the skills that are specific to that employer. But, we're going to give you a well-rounded background in the core competencies that help you be successful in that job."

She said the university has created partnerships with local businesses and organizations to help students get more hands-on experience in their chosen professions.

Other fields require higher education degrees for the majority of career positions.

Below said SEMO recently implemented a uniform tuition rate for all domestic students.

SEMO graduates often stay in the area after graduation, she added; Below herself is no exception. Helping connect students to businesses can help them launch their careers in the Southeast Missouri area.

A smaller student body, Below said, can allow for closer connections with professors and is generally cheaper than larger universities.