Sanctions against N. Korea no easy task

SEOUL, South Korea -- Already at the center of the world debate over war in Iraq, the U.N. Security Council is about to have another global flashpoint to deal with: the standoff over North Korea's nuclear weapons development.

The question now is whether the council can do anything about it.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, meets today and is widely expected to refer the nuclear dispute to the council, setting in motion a process that could lead to sanctions against the communist regime in Pyongyang.

But a host of factors could complicate consideration of sanctions. Russian and Chinese support is questionable, South Korea is pushing for more time to engage the North, and Pyongyang has said it would consider sanctions "a declaration of war."

"Unless you have a process prewired, a consensus on what the Security Council would do ... then it's possible that the referral in and of itself would be ineffective," said Scott Snyder, Asia Foundation representative in South Korea. "There is not a consensus in favor of sanctions."

The move to the Security Council is part of a U.S. push to involve other countries in the dispute, which North Korea has cast as exclusively between Pyongyang and Washington. Washington, however, has not said specifically that it would seek sanctions.

Secretary of State Colin Powell has urged China, North Korea's main ally, to take a larger role in convincing Pyongyang to give up its nuclear plans. On Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Thomas Hubbard, reiterated the U.S. preference for a multilateral approach.

"The Board of Governors of the IAEA ... will meet soon, and we expect it to relay its concerns about North Korea to the United Nations Security Council," Hubbard said at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul. "The world community must continue to insist, clearly and firmly, that North Korea must not disregard its international obligations."

Pleaded for more time

Seoul has already done what it could to delay IAEA referral to the Security Council. The Vienna-based nuclear agency considered meeting last week, but moved the meeting today after South Korea pleaded for more time for talks with the North.

But South Korea relented after the North refused to commit to specific steps to defuse the standoff during talks in Seoul in January, and Southern envoys failed to win a widely expected meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in subsequent talks in Pyongyang.

A top South Korean Foreign Ministry official, Chun Young-woo, conceded on Monday that it was "almost certain" the North Korean dispute would be referred to the Security Council.

The South has not come out specifically against U.N. sanctions, but Seoul's approach has been constant: engagement and negotiation.

South Korea has also attempted to calm fears of the danger represented by North Korea's nuclear development. On Monday, Prime Minister Kim Suk-soo said there was no proof Pyongyang already has a nuclear bomb as U.S. officials have asserted.

While South Korea is not a member of the Security Council, two veto-holding members -- Russia and China -- have expressed strong skepticism about shifting the Korean dispute to an international forum.

China on Tuesday brushed off Powell's suggestion of greater involvement by Beijing, continuing its support of Pyongyang's position: that only direct U.S.-North Korea talks can resolve the dispute.

"We believe the two parties are best able to solve the issue peacefully," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said at a regular news briefing. "Although it touches upon regional security and nuclear proliferation, the key to resolving this issue is the resumption of dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea."

Another factor is how North Korea may react to the imposition of sanctions. Pyongyang has said it would consider such a move "a declaration of war."

North Korea has also said it would ignore the meeting at the IAEA, which it accuses of being a pawn of the United States. Since tensions began rising in October, Pyongyang has expelled IAEA monitors and quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which the IAEA enforces.

Chung Jin-wie, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul, said that while much of North Korea's talk of war is bluster, a move to punish the impoverished country with sanctions could simply strengthen the hand of hard-liners in Pyongyang -- making a settlement even more difficult to attain.

"Somebody has to push North Korea, no doubt about it," he said. "At the same time, the U.N. Security Council could make it worse."