ROUGH MARCH DUE, MYTH PREDICTS

If an old weather legend proves true, March could come in like a lion.

My grandfather, a Tennessee farmer and part-time moonshiner, placed great stock in weather legends and myths -- the groundhog, woolly worm, persimmon seeds, and the "Twelve Days of January."

The latter legend emerged many a year ago, and with years of practice, followers of the legend can predict with accuracy the weather for any given year based on the weather of the first 12 days of the new year.

Thus, the weather of Jan. 1, was the basis of the weather for January. Jan. 2 governs February and Jan. 3 stands for March weather, and so on.

So, bank on it, some weather troubles could be brewing for March.

Dawn came on like a lamb on the first Monday, Jan. 3, of the new century.

It wasn't too clear, but temperatures ranged from 30 to 35 degrees, and winds were calm. Not bad for a brisk early January day.

That was about 7 a.m. The sun was supposed to make its appearance at 7:13 a.m.

It was late. Real late.

By 9, the skies were as dark as they were two hours earlier and some strange weather things were going on. The temperature was still warm, but the wind was blowing with near tornado-force, hail came from the sky, along with some later rain and snow in some parts of the state.

Using that one-day's weather, this prognosticator, using my grandfather's formula, is telling you here the trend of the weather expected for the third month of the year March.

Translated, this means looking for temperatures a few degrees above normal, precipitation above normal, and maybe an early dash of snow.

Helping to substantiate my March forecast, someone mentioned seeing a pig with a stick in its mouth, and everyone knows this is a sign of more rain. March could wind up with as much as 30 to 40 percent more rainfall than usual.

And wind? March is already known as the windy month you know: "March winds and April showers."

That calls for a quick glance at month No. 4.

Tuesday's (Jan. 4) weather emerged warm, with brief storm activity. Looking to April, we can see warm temperatures, 55 to 60 in the immediate area, with little rain, maybe 50 percent of normal.

Actually we're looking to warm cloudy days the first half of the month with some mixed rain over the last two weeks. But keep an eye out for cooler temperatures around Easter. We had a nice sunny Christmas Day. Another weather myth is that a "warm Christmas means a cooler Easter."

And you might keep an eye on the moon for the rain indications. If a crescent moon has its points tilting down, it cannot hold water, so rain is the result.

One other quick prediction here, for February.

Missouri started the new year with cloudy skies, and a chance of rain, but temperatures were great in the 60s here. That indicates some pretty good February weather, like cool and dry during the early days, warming by mid-month, maybe with a few snow flurries by week No 3.

The "Twelve Days of January" are still going on. Keep watch on the current weather for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan. 10, 11, 12) and adapt the weather patterns to October, November and December of this year.

If you miss on your predictions, most people won't remember, anyway. If you hit, you can always remind your friends you told them so.

Later this year, we'll take another look at some weather signs the woolly worm and pits of persimmon seeds. And Groundhog Day is coming up soon. We'll be talking with the local groundhog, "Girardeau George" about his prediction of when winter will end.

Looking back on 1998, it was the warmest and driest year since records started in 1853.

WEATHER SIGNS

Weather signs are so numerous you have to wonder which signs the real weather forecasters use, like:

*red in the morning sailers take warning. Red at night, sailors delight.

*The first frost in autumn will be exactly six moths after the first thunderstorm of spring.

*A big storm is coming if fish jump up incessantly in the water.

*A cat will begin to play and run up trees before a big windstorm.

*And if a cat basks in a February sun, it will have to go to the stove in March.

*A clear and sharp train whistle indicates fair weather.

*A clear sunset means fair weather on the following day, but a clear sunset on Friday means rain before Monday.

*A freeze on Feb. 22 means 40 more freezes.

*A green Christmas indicates a white Easter.

*A large numer of caterpillars (wooly worms) in the autumn is the sign of a cold winter.