RIVER NEAR SEASONAL WATER LEVEL

After nearly three consecutive months of high water levels on the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill., the National Weather Service says the river will drop to near mid-summer levels during the next 60 days.

At St. Louis Thursday, the Mississippi was at 18.5 feet. It was forecast to fall to 16 feet by Sunday.

At Cape Girardeau, the river stage Thursday was 24.5 feet, a fall of .6 of a foot. It marked the first time the river here has dropped below 25 feet since April 15. The river is forecast to drop to 23.4 feet by Sunday.

The 30-day outlook indicates the Mississippi at St. Louis will continue to fall. It's predicted to drop to 13.5 by Wednesday, 12.5 by July 10, 11.5 by July 17, and 10.5 feet by July 24.

At Cape Girardeau, the Mississippi is forecast to drop to 20.9 feet by Wednesday, 19.2 feet by July 10, 18.2 feet by July 17, and 17.6 feet by July 24.

The Ohio River at Cairo was at 24.7 feet Thursday. It is forecast to drop to 23.3 feet by Sunday, then continue falling to 20.7 feet by Wednesday, 18.8 feet by July 10, and 17.7 feet by July 24.

The 30-day forecast is welcome news for towboat pilots, who only two years ago had to navigate their reduced-size barge tows through a water-starved navigation channel between St. Louis and Cairo.

Weather Service hydrologist Jack Burns said the difference between the water levels this year as compared with the last few years is the extensive rainfall that has fallen during the past three months over the northern tier of states.

Burns noted that this year the Mississippi remained above flood levels at several locations north of St. Louis for nearly two months. Only now is the river beginning to drop back to near seasonal levels, he said.

Claude Strauser, chief of the potomology branch of the Corps of Engineers' St. Louis District Office, is happy about the river conditions.

His job, among many, is to find, conserve, and then release water from storage reservoirs into the river when it is needed.

Strauser knows it wasn't that long ago when the river at St. Louis was at minus 5 feet on the gauge, and the channel blocked in several spots.

After having to search the past three and a half years to find enough water to keep the Mississippi open in late summer, fall and early winter, Strauser now has the pleasant task of drawing down the water level in the Mark Twain Lake flood control facility on the Salt River near Hannibal to normal summertime levels.

"I've got 11 feet of water in that lake that will have to be released in July," said Strauser.

Other flood control reservoirs in Iowa are also brimming over, he said. "In Iowa, we have three major flood control water storage facilities on tributaries of the Mississippi that are at capacity levels," Strauser said. "That's because of all the rain that has fallen up there this year. This is the most rain they've had in Iowa in 99 years."

But Strauser said the news is not as good in the Missouri River basin.

The Missouri River and the water from its water storage reservoirs above Kansas City provide the extra water needed to keep the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo open for 210 days each year.

During late summer, fall and early winter, runoff into the Mississippi River above St. Louis is normally at its lowest point. When that happens, water is released along the Missouri River to take up the slack. The only problem is that during the past three and a half years, there hasn't been enough water available to make up the difference.

Thanks to above normal rainfall this spring and the snow-melt in the Rocky Mountains, run off into the water storage reservoirs on the Missouri River was 125 percent above average in May. This compares to 50 percent of average runoff in March and April.

"Storage in the main-stem reservoirs on the Missouri River showed a welcome increase in response to abundant rain in the upper basin," said Duane Sveum, chief of the corps' Reserve Control Center at Omaha, Neb. "Runoff into the system above Sioux City (Iowa) in May was 4.1 million acre feet. (MAF)"

Sveum said system storage rose from 41.8 to 43.4 MAF during May, a 1.6 MAF increase.

But Strauser said this news must be tempered by the fact that the entire system was at an all-time record low level at the start of the navigation season April 1.

"Even with the rosy runoff figures we're seeing on the upper Missouri recently, we are definitely not out of the woods yet," said Strauser. "We still have not had a normal runoff into the reservoirs since 1987."

Strauser noted the estimated runoff this year of 21 million acre feet is still well below the normal 25 million MAF.

"Instead of having a disaster this year, it's just bad, and bad is certainly a lot better than a disaster," said Strauser. " But the fact remains, it is still going to take six years of average annual precipitation just to get these storage reservoirs back up to their normal levels. We have a nearly four-year deficit that has to be made up."

Strauser said that as the Mississippi continues to fall next month, he will order release of water from the Iowa and Missouri flood control impoundments to keep the river at near seasonal levels.

"Of course, all of this is based on normal amounts of rainfall coming in July and August," Strauser said. "If we have a very dry summer, all of this could change for the worse."

Strauser said if there is average rainfall in the Mississippi River basin during the next two months, the Mississippi at Cape Girardeau should remain at between 14 to 12 feet on the gauge, which is a lot better than the 4- to 6-foot levels that were common here during the summer of 1988 and 1989.

Strauser said that as the river continues to fall between St. Louis and Cairo, some problems may develop. He said corps survey boats will inspect the navigation channel to watch for shoals and sandbars.

"This high water has shifted around all of the sand and sediment we dredged during the low water in 1988 and 1989. That means all of the crossings and bends have pretty well filled up. If the river falls faster than expected, we may have some problems at these bends and crossings," he said.

"Right now, we do not anticipate having to send our dredges out this year until August. In the past few years, we had to send them out as early as June."

Strauser said, "Right now, things are looking fine for the next two months, but we have to remain alert. The crunch will come in late fall and early winter when the river levels are at their lowest, and at the peak of the grain harvest shipping season."