PROPOSAL COMPARISONS: CRUNCHING NUMBERS, COUNTING THE KIDS (DRAWING THE LINES -- SECOND IN A SERIES)

When a committee studying redistricting Cape Girardeau public schools reconvened in January, chairman Steve Trautwein anticipated one meeting to "tweak" the plan a little.

In 1997 the committee had redrawn lines to consolidate Cape Girardeau's six elementary school into five. At that time, the committee knew it would need to meet again to firm up the numbers of students at each school.

The group asked principals to run the numbers. Using the 1997 lines, how many students would be attending each school this fall. They didn't count sixth graders, since they would be moving to L.J. Schultz, and doubled the number of kindergarteners this year to estimate the 1999 kindergarten class.

"They brought back the bombshell," said Trautwein.

The 1997 projections were wrong, not just a little, but a lot. And the numbers were wrong at more than one school, explained David Giles, assistant superintendent.

Topping the trouble list was Franklin, the district's smallest elementary school. Using the 1997 plan, Franklin would have 425 children in the fall. The school's capacity is 350.

On the other end of the scale Blanchard Elementary School, the district's new building, was built to house 525 students. Using the 1997 plan it would have 387 students. Jefferson Elementary School, which had an $1.9 million addition in 1998, would have 415. Jefferson's capacity is 525.

"The two buildings where the district had spent the most money were the least utilized," Trautwein said.

At the same time, minority enrollments would be outside the target range of 15 to 35 percent at three schools.

How could the 1997 projections be so wrong just two years later?

During 1998 and 1999, families moved. This is evidenced by a shift in minority enrollments at Cape Girardeau's northern-most elementary schools.

In 1997, Alma Schrader had a minority enrollment of 4 percent. In 1999, Alma Schrader has a minority enrollment of 9 percent. In 1997, Clippard had a minority enrollment of 9 percent. In 1999, Clippard has a minority enrollment of 18 percent.

However, were those shifts significant enough to throw the 1997 projections completely off track? Maybe not, Trautwein and Giles said.

It's possible that the data used in 1997 wasn't accurate. In 1997, Giles recalled, the numbers seemed accurate. No one had any reason to doubt the data, he said, which was compiled using a computer.

In 1999, the numbers don't work out the way the committee had anticipated. So principals hand-counted students looking for more accurate data. And the committee took corrective action. They moved the lines in neighborhoods where school districts abut.

The boundaries of Franklin and Jefferson touch. Franklin had too many students, Jefferson too few. So the dividing line was moved north, shaving students off Franklin's enrollment and putting them in Jefferson.

The boundaries of Alma Schrader and Blanchard touch. Schrader was close to capacity and immediate growth is expected in that district. Blanchard had too few students. The line was moved to the west from Cape Rock Drive to Cambridge, moving students from the crowded Schrader to the new Blanchard.

Boundaries of Clippard and Jefferson touch. Clippard was close to capacity and even greater enrollment growth is projected for that district. Jefferson was under-utilized. So the line between these two school districts was moved to the north.

"The greatest growth potential is at Clippard," Giles said. "We artificially lowered those numbers, anticipating a growth in enrollment there."

In 1997, the committee didn't calculate how many children would move. "We knew every family in Washington and May Greene would move," Trautwein said. "And we knew a number of other parents would move. I don't think it would have driven our decision."

As the committee reworked the numbers this winter, the goal was to better utilize the district's buildings and to approach the minority enrollment guidelines.

"The goal was not to move the fewest kids," Trautwein said.