PRIMED FOR POLITICS: CANDIDATES TAKE NOTICE AS MISSOURI PREPARES FOR ITS PRIMARY ELECTION IN MARCH

The primary is seven months away in Missouri. But already the leading contender for the Republican nomination has made an appearance in Cape Girardeau.

When Gov. George W. Bush made his stop, he told reporters that he would probably be back in Missouri before the campaign was over.

"It is a bell weather state," he said.

Missouri has dumped the caucus system and jumped on board a national trend of getting on the primary bandwagon. There was a primary in 1988 to help U.S. Representative Richard Gephardt in his bid for the Democratic nomination. But the election in 2000 is the first time a primary will take place as a permanent fixture of Missouri politics.

"You might as well jump in because that is the only way to have influence," said Russell Renka, a political science instructor at Southeast Missouri State University.

Renka said by the mid-70s primaries emerged as the new gauge for who would emerge victorious in each party's nomination process. No longer was it necessary to wait until the convention to decide who the nominee was going to be.

"It became apparent that whoever dominated the primaries couldn't be denied the nomination," Renka said. "That turned it into a process of who gets in line first."

States soon realized that if they wanted to influence the selection process, an early primary was the way to go. Last year there were 41 states with primaries. Now Missouri joins those ranks with a March 7, 2000 primary.

Peter Bergerson, a political science instructor at Southeast Missouri State University, said now that Missouri is a primary state, there likely will be more candidates coming through and the rural areas of Missouri will be specific targets for Republican presidential candidates.

"They will come to the rural areas -- particularly the Republicans because that is where the farmers are and the more conservative voters," Bergerson said. "Candidates also will go to the metropolitan areas because that is where the numerical voters are.

Renka said he expects to see both candidates on the Democratic side making stops in Missouri and even in Cape Girardeau.

"Cape Girardeau is a good place for either of them to come," Renka said. "The media can hit parts of Southern Illinois, Kentucky, Arkansas, a large part of Southeast Missouri and even parts of Tennessee. It is a good pay off because the media is on the border of so many states."

Maggie Thurman, spokeswoman for the Missouri Democratic State Party, said she has not heard of any potential campaign stops of Democratic candidates, but anticipates there will be some.

"I think that Missouri is a bellwether state," she said. "And there will not just be more candidates, but also more media attention -- especially national media."

Renka said Missouri is a bellwether state because it is a place where a candidate can identify national trends.

"It is a state where you can kind of get a reading for what is going on in the nation," Renka said. "If you have a bunch of bootheel people lining up to give money George W. Bush, what you are really seeing is a bunch of Southern Democrats becoming Southern Republicans."

Missouri also is a swing state, which means that after the primaries are over, the nominees will be trying hard to court Missouri voters. Missouri voted for the Republican presidents in 1980, 1984 and 1988. But the last two elections have gone to the Democratic candidate.

"Some states are predominantly Republican and some are predominantly Democrat," Bergerson said. "Massachusetts is a good example of a state that is predominantly for Democrats. And Kansas votes predominantly Republican. But Missouri could go either way."

Thurman said too that Missouri will be important in the general election because there will be a high profile U.S. Senate race that both parties will be working nonstop to win.

She said it will be important for the candidates to come to Missouri because when a candidate comes to town, it helps to motivate the party faithful to go out and work.

"It is an energizer," Thurman said. "We have such good candidates on the Democratic side, and it is a chance for people to ask questions."

And Bergerson added that Bush's arrival really was about motivating people to go out and work for him.

"It gives them some encouragement and support," he said. "We are 15 months away from the election and your party's front runner is here."

SELECTING CANDIDATES

Forty-four states plus the District of Columbia have presidential primaries scheduled in 2000 for one or both parties.

Six states will choose their candidates through caucus only: Iowa, North Dakota, Hawaii, Nevada, Alaska and Wyoming.

Some states offer a primary for one party and caucuses for the other.

Feb. 8.

New Hampshire primary

Feb. 19

South Carolina primary

Feb. 22

Arizona and Michigan GOP primaries

Feb. 29

Washington and Virginia primaries

March 7 (Yankee Primary)

California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont primaries

March 10 (Big Sky Primary)

Colorado and Utah primaries

March 14 (Super Tuesday)

Florida, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas primaries

Louisiana Democratic primary

March 21

Illinois primary

April 4

Kansas, Wisconsin and Minnesota primaries

April 25

Pennsylvania primary

May 2

District of Columbia, Indiana and North Carolina primaries

May 9

Nebraska and West Virginia primaries

May 16

Oregon primary

May 23

Arkansas, Kentucky and Idaho primaries

June 6

Alabama, Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey and South Dakota primaries

Date undetermined

Delaware, likely Democratic primary only