Post-Saddam Iraq will be hard to rebuild

WASHINGTON -- From his suite at the Ritz-Carlton overlooking Georgetown, Sharif Ali bin Hussein spoke passionately last week about bringing the royal family back to Iraq -- and putting himself on the throne.

"Our belief after 40 years of failed republics is that the people want a return of the monarchy. This is what we're being told by Iraqis themselves," said the dapper chief of Iraq's Constitutional Monarchy Movement, who fled the capital, Baghdad, at 2 after his cousin King Faisal II was assassinated in 1958.

Across town, in the Ritz-Carlton at Pentagon City, legendary Iraqi Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani relighted a half-smoked cigar after breakfast and opined about a new Iraq that is democratic and parliamentary -- and provides "more than autonomy" for the beleaguered Kurds.

As the United States begins plotting the country's future after the anticipated fall of President Saddam Hussein, the biggest challenge might be designing and sustaining a new government that embraces the spectrum of Iraqi society.

Such a government has never existed in modern Iraq, a nation with artificial borders delineated by colonial masters. And, despite the new show of unity during talks with the Bush administration last week, Iraq's widely diverse opposition still has widely diverse visions of the future.

"A military operation in Iraq will be comparatively easy. The hard part will be constructing a truly representative system afterward. It will take long-term U.S. hand-holding to keep Iraqis focused on the prize," said Henri J. Barkey, a former Iraq expert in the U.S. State Department who is chairman of Lehigh University's international relations department.

"This is not your dad's Germany or Japan," he said. "It'll be much harder to politically rebuild Iraq."

'A turning point'

Yet the Bush administration now holds out hope that the opposition can be crafted into a viable force -- and a potential weapon against Hussein. U.S. officials, including some who once criticized the opposition for its squabbling, pettiness and questionable accounting, were almost giddy with enthusiasm last week after a session with opposition leaders.

"It's a turning point, absolutely," said a senior administration official who requested anonymity. "Certainly those of us sitting in the room were all impressed with the dynamic of coordination and consultation among the six groups."

Even the failure of Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Democratic Party of Kurdistan, to attend the Washington talks did not discourage either the Americans or the opposition. Barzani stayed away, citing logistical reasons, despite an offer of a U.S. aircraft, according to the White House.

Iraqi sources said he also was concerned about backlash from Hussein against his region, in the north of Iraq, for participation in the talks. Instead, he sent a representative.

Otherwise, the Iraqis surprised even themselves in their new ability to cooperate. "We are in a new era," Talabani said.

Over the next two months, the six leading opposition groups face a series of tests to prove their recent words -- and their future worth, according to U.S. officials.

Expanding reach

First, the opposition must expand its reach. The administration met with six groups: two Kurdish movements, a Shiite Muslim religious party, the monarchists, an umbrella group led by a U.S.-educated Shiite businessman and a smaller coalition led by a Sunni Muslim.

The administration wants the six to embrace dozens more elements from Iraqi society, including military defectors, professionals who could help rebuild Iraq, various tribes and other ethnic groups, including the Turkmens and Assyrians.

Widening the opposition base will be a key goal of an international conference tentatively scheduled for next month somewhere in Europe. The United States also is calling on the opposition to take the lead in persuading the world to support a U.S.-led effort to oust Hussein.

"We told them to get out and make the case for regime change, especially in the Arab world," the administration official said. "We'd like to see a joint delegation moving around the region. It's important to get Iraqis out there so it's seen as their mission, not just ours."

It's a role the opposition claims it is ready to assume. "We know we need to explain our cause -- and in one voice. It will make a big difference in what others think and do," said Talabani, the Kurdish leader.