Political turmoil awaits Sharon after offensive

JERUSALEM -- In their outrage over Palestinian terror attacks, Israelis have overwhelmingly backed Ariel Sharon's military offensive -- but the fighting can only put off the prime minister's political troubles for so long.

Once "Operation Defensive Shield" ends -- no matter when or how -- Sharon will have new choices to make: resume negotiations with the Palestinians or rebuff U.S. peace efforts?

Whichever way he goes, he faces political dangers.

"The luxury today of leading such a wide coalition, in the government and in the people, is good only for wartime," said veteran political analyst Hanan Crystal. "The moment it's over, there will be a new situation."

Ironically for the prime minister, an end to the 18-month Palestinian uprising could spell the end of his "unity government" with the moderate Labor Party.

That could pit Sharon, a longtime hawk and patron of the Jewish settler movement, against the growing numbers of Israelis who want an end to their 35-year entanglement in the West Bank and Gaza.

If Sharon moves toward peace talks, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, already a popular challenger, will be waiting in the wings of his own Likud Party, which opposes Palestinian statehood and advocates ousting Yasser Arafat.

But if Sharon continues to resist diplomatic initiatives, Labor could well bolt and try to force elections before his term runs out in late 2003.

Political boost

Sharon received a boost from the right on Thursday when the hardline National Religious Party agreed to bring its five parliament members into his coalition, a sign of right-wing satisfaction with the assault on the Palestinians. But even that might not be enough to survive a decision by Labor to leave the coalition.

Potential Labor challengers to Sharon include two of his senior Cabinet ministers: Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, a peace camp eminence with a spotty electoral record, and Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, the party's politically untested new leader.

Political commentator Ben Caspit wrote in the Maariv newspaper on Friday that if Labor leaves, one scenario being considered was appointing Netanyahu as foreign minister and former premier Ehud Barak of Labor as defense minister -- co-opting two prospective dangerous critics from the right and left, and gaining more time.

If early elections are held, the outlook is somewhat unclear.

Netanyahu could challenge Sharon for leadership of the Likud, and internal party polls show Natanyahu holding an edge.

Surveys have shown that the public is becoming more dovish on the issues: a majority supports establishing a Palestinian state and removing many if not most of the Jewish settlements in those areas. There is also growing support for the once inconceivable idea of sharing Jerusalem with the Palestinians.

A Friday poll in the Yediot Ahronot daily showed 73 percent -- an astonishing majority in usually fractured Israel -- supporting establishment of an independent Palestinian state "if the terrorism will stop"; full Palestinian statehood was opposed by most Israelis a decade ago.

However, ongoing violence has made the occupation less popular than ever and has engendered anger and distrust that push Israelis toward rightist parties opposed to far-reaching compromise.

A new, attractive candidate on the left could reshuffle the political deck, and a group of prominent Israeli businessmen has been actively searching for the right man; one name often cited is former Shin Bet chief Ami Ayalon, a retired admiral with a distinctive liberal bent.

For the moment -- with Israeli casualties still low -- the week-old military operation has boosted Sharon in the polls.

The Yediot poll showed that 62 percent of 504 Israelis surveyed approved of Sharon's performance, up from 17 percent several weeks ago.

Another poll in the Jerusalem Post showed "Operation Defensive Shield" backed by 72 percent of 501 Israelis interviewed.