Political party parity trend primed to continue in elections

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- Twenty years ago, Democrats held approximately 65 percent of the seats in the nation's state legislatures. Today, the partisan split at the statehouse level is about even and the trend toward party parity looks to continue.

Heading into the Nov. 5 elections, 18 state legislatures are under Democratic control while Republicans dominate 17. Fourteen states, including Missouri, have split statehouses with each party holding a majority in one chamber. The unicameral Nebraska legislature is officially nonpartisan.

Democrats still hold roughly 275 more state legislative seats than Republicans but that gap continues to tighten, said Tim Storey, an elections analyst for the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver.

"That margin gets closer and closer with every election," Storey said.

Of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers, 89 have seats up for election this year.

"About one dozen are on the watch list for potential chamber switches," Storey said. "Missouri is at the top of that list."

At present, Missouri Republicans hold a tenuous one-seat Senate majority while Democrats control the House of Representatives by six votes. Either party has a strong shot at reuniting the General Assembly, though most observers say the outcome is too close to call. A continuation of the status quo or a swap of chambers between the parties is equally possible, they say.

Following a typical election, legislative turnover nationally usually runs around 18 percent. Storey predicts 25 percent turnover this year, primarily because it the first election year following legislative redistricting.

"That always contributes to heavy turnover," Storey said. "For Missouri, it is the proverbial double whammy. It is the only state getting hit with both redistricting and term limits."

In large part because of term limits, there will be at least 87 freshman in the 163-member Missouri House in January and a minimum 12 new faces in the 34-member Senate, where only half the seats are on the ballot this year.

Other split legislatures that could reunite include Texas and Vermont, where the GOP hopes to emerge dominant, and Illinois, Kentucky and Minnesota, where Democrats appear poised to pick up chambers.

One-party legislative control is a serious possibility in Oklahoma, Washington and North Carolina, where Democrats are currently in charge, as well as Oregon, now held by Republicans.

Illinois unite

Dr. John Jackson of the Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University-Carbondale said Democrats are in a solid position to reunite the Illinois General Assembly. They hold a six-vote House majority but trail Republicans by five seats in the Senate.

"The Democratic redistricting map prevailed and most observers believe it is a friendly map to Democrats," Jackson said.

Strong leads by the Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. senator could produce a coattails effect for the party's legislative candidates, Jackson said.

The party parity sweeping the nation is nothing new to Illinois, Jackson said.

"We have been very competitive and a swing state for a very long time," Jackson said. "That parity we have is what the rest of the country is starting to look like."

Storey, the elections analyst, said national trends on issues in statehouse races haven't yet developed, though austere state budgets are a widespread voter concern. Prior to Labor Day, polls showed that voters had little interest about big-picture issues such as the national economy and security. Storey said that is starting to change and could impact the campaign messages of state legislative candidates.

While the GOP has made steady gains throughout the country in recent decades, Storey said one factor works against them this year with Republican George W. Bush in the White House.

"The president's party has lost legislative seats overall in every mid-term election since 1940," Storey said. "That is a tough trend for Republicans to overcome."

mpowers@semissourian.com

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