Pentagon questions source of Iraqi violence

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- U.S. troops in Iraq are getting ambushed everywhere and every day -- while guarding gas stations, investigating car thefts or on their way to make phone calls home.

Each new attack is raising questions about whether the violence, which has killed close to one-third of the 63 American soldiers who've died since May 1, is a last gasp from Saddam Hussein loyalists or signs of a spreading revolt. The Pentagon is puzzling over how many resisters there are, how well they are organized and how they can be stopped.

Private risk analysts are warning of an even chance of Iraq descending into open revolt -- keeping much needed investment funds away from the country.

Iraqis interviewed on the streets say they long for stability and security and want the violence to end.

But many say the Americans should not be surprised by the anger directed toward them -- both by Saddam loyalists and ordinary Iraqis frustrated by the slow progress in their country, and the continued stream of civilian casualties.

"It was predictable," said Iraqi political scientist Saad al-Jawwad. "To any man or any woman or anybody who's living in despair what could he do? He has nothing left but to carry arms and defy the people who are here occupying his country and doing nothing for him or his family. Where is democracy? Nonexistent. Where is stability? Nonexistent. Where's electricity? Where's water?"

Predicting revolt

U.S. officials have also turned many against them in efforts to remove remnants of the old regime and replace tens of thousands of low-ranking officials from Saddam's Baath party, Al-Jawwad said. Iraqi soldiers from the 1.5 million strong former army who survived the war but have been out of work and unpaid for months are also increasingly angry.

"What do you expect these people to do? To keep on sitting like sheep?" said al-Jawwad. "Of course they would organize themselves and they will get more organized and more organized."

"And that will develop into a revolt," he predicted.

U.S. officials insist that most Iraqis are grateful to the United States for removing Saddam and ending his tyrannical 35-year reign, and say many citizens understand that it will take time for the coalition to get the nation back on its feet.

But they acknowledge they have yet to fully understand the mounting violence. It is not clear how many resistance fighters are out there, nor how organized they are, senior defense officials say. And they don't know how to stop it.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has chafed at suggestions the attacks represent the outbreak of guerrilla warfare.

"I don't know that I would use that word," he told reporters in Washington on Friday after briefing the Senate Armed Services Committee on postwar developments. "It's been accurately portrayed that the major combat has been concluded and that there are a lot of Baathists and Fedayeen Saddam still in the country that are associated closely with Saddam Hussein. ... The coalition is taking every step possible to rout them out."

Rumsfeld has said he believes there are "small elements" of 10 to 20 people, not large military formations or networks of attackers.

Lt. Gen. John Abizaid, confirmed Friday to replace war commander Gen. Tommy Franks as head of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate on Wednesday that there are three main groups causing the violence:

Leftover cells from Saddam's Baath party in a triangle bounded by Baghdad, Ramadi and Tikrit; anti-American fundamentalist Islamists, including some foreigners; and a criminal element including some of the 100,000 prisoners Saddam freed from jail before the war.

The instability could scare off companies looking to invest in Iraq or win reconstruction contracts.

A recent report by Kroll, a corporate security group, said the country is likely to face one of two scenarios in the next six months: a slow, difficult recovery or a descent into open revolt.

The Pentagon has sent a team of five independent experts to Iraq to provide advice to the U.S. administrators on ways to stabilize the country.

The team will examine the postwar administration of Iraq and make suggestions to L. Paul Bremer, the leader of that Pentagon effort, said Lawrence DiRita, Rumsfeld's aide and acting spokesman, in Washington.

Iraqi observers say those involved in anti-U.S. attacks are a tiny portion of the population of 24 million people -- with the vast majority merely hoping for peace.

The anti-U.S. violence and the attacks on power plants and oil pipelines are a crime, said Iraqi historian Kamal Mazhar, adding that the attackers are mostly hurting Iraqis, "who are suffering without security, water and electricity."

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Pauline Jelinek reported this story from Washington.