A lot can happen between now and the middle of summer, when growers pick peaches and apples.
But, with early peach blooms, growers in Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois are keeping close watch on the daily weather report.
"Things look OK right now," said David Diebold of Diebold Orchards. "But, the weather can change."
Diebold was referring to an extended weather forecast that calls for low temperatures in the 30s in Southeast Missouri during the early part of next week.
"We can handle 30-degree weather even with the early blooms," he said. "We'll start having problems if the temperatures dip to the mid-20s."
Peach blooms are from 10 days to more than two weeks early in portions of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois.
Diebold, Bill Beggs of Pioneer Orchard in Cape Girardeau and Bill Flamm of Flamm Family Orchards near Cobden, Ill., agree that peach blooms this year are as early as ever.
"The potential for a good crop is overwhelming," Diebold said, adding that the early blooms can make for some more worries. "We're at the mercy of the weather."
One Southern Illinois grower said the difference between profit and disaster was a few inches of the mercury.
Many of the peach trees in Diebold, Pioneer and Flamm orchards are in good locations (higher sites).
Fruit growers say that trees on high sites can withstand the cold better than trees in the valleys.
The apple crop is less susceptible to weather than peaches.
They bloom later, said Flamm, who has about 400 acres in apple trees. "Usually by the time the apple trees bloom, they are in no danger of extreme cold weather," he added.
The Flamm Family Orchard consists of about 600 acres, with about 200 acres in peaches.
Peach growers agree that a light freeze might not be bad for the peach trees.
Many blooms, they say, may have to be thinned by hand. A light freeze, said Beggs and Diebold, could help thin out some of the excess buds and make for a better quality peach crop.
"If Mother Nature doesn't help us with a light freeze (25-30 degrees) we'll go into the orchard later and thin out some of the peach buds by hand," Diebold said.
The peach harvest season usually lasts from July 1 to Sept. 1. The apples harvest is later, from mid-to-late August through Oct. 1.
Illinois peach and apple growers have decreased over the past decade. About 10 years ago, the state had about 800 apple growers with 8,705 acres and 350 peach growers with 2,483 acres. That list has dwindled to 350 apple growers holding 5,710 acres and 150 peach growers with 2,200 acres.
Peach and apple production has been up and down in Missouri over the past half-dozen years, and both were down in 1994.
"Our apple crop was probably about 50 percent of normal last year," Diebold said. The peach crop was a shade better, at about 60 percent."
Statewide, the Missouri Department of Agriculture, estimated the apple crop at about 33 million pounds, about 40 percent less than the 56 million pound crop of 1993.
The state's best recent peach year was in 1991, when about 11 million pounds of peaches were produced. In 1993, only 7.5 million pounds were produced and that fell to 5 million pounds last year.
In some instances prices will make up for a "short" crop. In 1993, peaches sold for an average of 24 cents a pound for a $1.8 million crop. During the "short crop " year of 1994, the prices averaged 32 cents a pound, providing $1.6 million to the agriculture economy.
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