NWS: Winter weather on the way

All of Southeast Missouri and the surrounding region could be in for a winter weather event late this week if forecast models being examined Monday by the National Weather Service hold true in the coming days.

Forecasters are not yet sure what type or how much precipitation will fall Thursday and Friday when a winter storm is expected to move through the area, but Dan Spaeth, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky., said he is fairly confident there will be some accumulation.

"It's too early to get too specific at this point, but we know something is going to happen," Spaeth said.

The storm could begin with rain and change to freezing rain, then sleet, when it moves into the area Thursday. Colder air entering the local atmosphere Friday is expected to change that precipitation to snow.

"The big thing that we are watching is the arctic air mass that is supposed to be coming through the area," Spaeth said. "It looks like that will be moving in Thursday or Thursday night. But the devil's in the details ... how quickly it gets in here and how deep that cold layer is determines whether we have freezing rain, sleet or snow."

The cold air could change temperatures drastically after possible thunderstorms Wednesday, when the high is expected to reach 64 degrees in Cape Girardeau. Thursday's high is forecast to be 38 degrees; Friday's just 27 degrees. National Weather Service forecasts also call for winds to pick up during that three-day period and show a 70 percent chance of winter precipitation Thursday and Friday.

A special weather statement and a hazardous weather outlook report have already been issued for the area by the National Weather Service. The area expected to be affected by the storm includes a wide swath of Missouri as far north as Interstate 70 and parts of Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee to the Memphis and Nashville metro areas.

Forecasters also are watching models for a chance of a second round of winter weather that could come Saturday night into Sunday. National Weather Service forecasts for Sunday show a 40 percent chance of snow for Cape Girardeau and a high of 27 degrees.

Spaeth said accumulation amounts Sunday could depend on the amount of coverage the area gets from the Thursday-Friday storm.

No measurable winter precipitation has fallen in Southeast Missouri yet this winter.

eragan@semissourian.com

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Cape Girardeau, MO

Paducah, Ky.