Not spring yet: Forecasters don't count out late-winter snowstorm despite mild temperatures now

Though much of the Midwest has seen unseasonably warm and dry weather so far this winter, frozen precipitation can't be ruled out for the rest of this season, said Kevin Smith, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Paducah, Kentucky.

"Right now, through March 5, we're still looking at above-normal temperatures," Smith said, although this weekend, Saturday's low is predicted to approach 31 degrees Fahrenheit. But by Monday, temperatures are expected to climb back into the 60s.

Since Dec. 1, Smith said, the weather service has recorded just 6.25 inches of precipitation.

"Normal amount would be 10.05 inches," Smith said, "which makes it below normal by 3.8 inches."

Last winter, from Dec. 1, 2015, to Feb. 20, 2016, the weathers service recorded 4.95 inches of total precipitation, Smith said.

"We've had more so far this season than last year at this point, as far as seasonal total, but we're still below normal," he said.

Normally, Cape Girardeau could expect to receive 2.33 inches in February, he said.

"This year, we've seen 0.95 inches, 1.38 inches below normal," he said.

February 2016, the NWS recorded 0.95 inches.

It's not until the second or third week of March the weather service predicts a possibility of below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation, Smith said.

"That doesn't mean we can't look for a snowstorm or a mixed-precipitation event," he said.

Into March and April, winter events still can occur, Smith said.

"But at that point in time, their impact is a lot shorter," he said.

Non-frozen ground and temperatures consistently in the upper 30s and 40s lead to warmer ground cover, so accumulation melts more quickly.

So far in February, Cape Girardeau has received 1.23 inches of rain, including Saturday's showers. In February 2016, 4.73 inches of precipitation, including rain and snow, was recorded.

On Friday, the Cape Girardeau County Sheriff's Department issued a "no-burn statement."

"All Cape Girardeau County residents should refrain from burning outdoors," the notice said. "Any wind, no matter how light, [could] cause a fire to quickly become out of control. It is highly recommended that burning should be halted until conditions improve."

"There's no telling right now whether we're going to have a drought or a normal spring," Smith said. "Right now, at least into March, we're looking for above-normal precipitation and temperatures."

However, once April, May, June and July commence, above-normal temperatures are likely, with equal chances on precipitation.

"Does that mean drought potential?" Smith said. "At this time, probabilities are about equal.

"If our precipitation is below normal going into April and May, that could lead to some issues for drought, especially in summer, because thunderstorm activity is more spotty," he said. "There's not widespread coverage of rainfall for agricultural uses."

But any little bit of rain helps, Smith said. Soil permeability increases with warmer temperatures, he said.

"We also see plants accepting more water for growth," he said.

Longer-range climate models are on a global scale, and filtering those models down into individual events is hard to do.

"We run models every day with different conditions," Smith said. "If a strong signal tends to persist in ensembles, we review that."

Models are also compared with meteorological records.

"Usually in the winter months, our biggest concern is the ground is already saturated, and we get runoff," Smith said. "If we do not get a lot of precipitation for the rest of late winter into spring, we will see an impact on moisture stores being available for agriculture and other uses."

Smith said fine grasses, such as those present in much of the Cape Girardeau area, will tend to dry out more quickly than forest areas or larger debris piles.

"If you have a few good days of dry weather and a lot of winds, it will evaporate moisture and give potential for burns," he said.

Burn season occurs twice a year, in late winter and early fall. In late winter, the season often extends into the "green up" in late March and early April, Smith said.

"It's just part of the seasonal change. But there's an impact on agriculture, forestry, you name it."

mniederkorn@semissourian.com

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