North Korea could reap benefits from several deals

SEOUL, South Korea -- The offers being waved at North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions are getting more attractive all the time.

The United States has spoken of a "bold initiative" of aid, a top nuclear inspector predicts plenty of international aid and South Korea's president-elect sees the future North as part of a dynamic Asian economy.

The talk these days has eased from defiance and confrontation toward a growing international effort to find a diplomatic solution and draw the volatile regime in Pyongang out of dangerous isolation.

For a nation as poor as communist North Korea, the potential benefits look enticing.

North Korea could certainly use the help. More than 2 million of its 22 million people are believed to have died in a 1996-98 famine and the country still faces massive food shortages. Energy is so scarce that factories are idle and heating is a luxury.

Pyongyang's economic woes have only worsened as relations with the United States have deteriorated.

Washington suspended food aid in June over North Korea's refusal to allow donors into certain parts of the country, and oil shipments were stopped after U.S. officials said Pyongyang had admitted in October that it was running a secret nuclear weapons program.

The standoff has also hobbled aid efforts by South Korea and Japan, which has put the brakes on food, medical and energy assistance in recent months.

But pressure has mounted for a diplomatic resolution after the North pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty this month, sparking fears it was intent on building atomic bombs.

Publicly, the North has spurned the offers so far, apparently hoping for more ironclad guarantees of aid before it agrees to abandon its nuclear plans. The North is clamoring for recognition and a nonaggression pact with Washington to ensure the survival of its regime.

But Park, the political scientist, isn't too worried.

"They are in bad shape economically, diplomatically," he said. "I think North Korea will finally come back to the table of dialogue."

While no one has come out with specifics on precisely what -- and how much -- they will give, vaguely worded offers have gathered pace.

"Certainly our government is willing to give them clothes and food," said Yu Suk-ryul, an analyst with South Korea's state-funded Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. "I think that is the most important."

A U.S. envoy to Asia said on Monday that Washington could provide energy aid. The following day President Bush said he was considering a "bold initiative" for farming help if Pyongyang gives up its weapons effort.

On Wednesday, Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that his talks with officials from the United States, France and elsewhere indicated a negotiated settlement would include extensive aid.

A bonanza could come from Japan, which hinted at a first-ever bilateral summit with North Korea in September that more economic aid could be coming as compensation for its brutal 1910-1945 colonization of the Korean Peninsula.

The package, with normalization of diplomatic ties attached, has been estimated by independent analysts as running between US$5 billion to $17 billion. North Korea's entire gross domestic product is about $15 billion a year -- roughly one-fortieth of South Korea's.

With South Korea eager to help, the longer-term rewards to North Korea for opening up could be substantial: Investment, a reopening of work on cross-border rail and road links, and a special communism-free economic zone of the type that launched China's march toward capitalism.

In a speech Friday to American and European business executives, President-elect Roh Moo-hyun said a resolution of the standoff and then a stable peace settlement would allow vast economic development for both Koreas.

"I am not chanting a slogan when I say we will build the hub economy of Northeast Asia," Roh said, mentioning gas pipelines to Russia as one possibility.

But more than just the confrontation with Washington has to be resolved.

Help from Tokyo will depend on whether Pyongyang hands over the Japanese citizens it admits kidnapping for espionage purposes. The whole country will have to open up to donor access to get full food assistance. And its inclusion on Washington's list of terrorist states blocks the World Bank and International Monetary Fund from offering help.