No big U.S. troop reduction in Iraq likely until 2006 or 2008

WASHINGTON -- Any permanent reduction in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq isn't likely until sometime between 2006 and 2008, a top Army general said Thursday.

For there to be any drawdown, Iraq security forces must continue to improve their ability to fight the insurgency themselves, Gen. Richard A. Cody, Army vice chief of staff, told reporters.

The military is planning a staggered rotation of soldiers and large units that will be in Iraq between 2006 and early 2008, Cody said. That planning is expected to include the possibility of a significant reduction in U.S. forces.

He said he could not be more specific in numbers or timeframe, nor did he say how a reduction would be achieved. Sending fewer or smaller units to Iraq is one possibility; shortening the time each unit spends in Iraq is another.

The military has not selected which units will serve in Iraq during that rotation. They would replace the Army's 4th Infantry and 101st Airborne divisions, which are slated to go to Iraq in the coming rotation.

The insurgency has forced the United States to keep a semi-permanent force of 138,000 troops, or 17 brigades, in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion two years ago. They are primarily Army soldiers and Marines, members of units who stay in Iraq for a year before going home.

About 150,000 U.S. troops are in Iraq now because 12,000 extra were sent for security during the Jan. 30 elections. The additional forces are scheduled to leave within two weeks.

Another 22,700 allied, non-Iraqi troops are also in the country, a number that has been dropping as more countries have pulled out forces. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi indicated this week that Italy may begin reducing its 3,000-strong contingent later this year amid anger over the recent, accidental killing of an Italian intelligence officer by U.S. troops.

The Pentagon says any reductions in foreign allied troops will be made up by Iraqi security forces, which have meanwhile grown to more than 140,000 soldiers and police who have received training and equipment. The quality and capabilities of these forces vary widely, and it is unclear whether all the police are actually on the job.

"You can't mass produce a quality army overnight," Cody said.

If the situation in Iraq worsens, it is possible that the U.S. force level would remain steady or even grow, officials say.

Initial U.S. postwar planning for Iraq anticipated the United States would be out of Iraq by the end of 2004, according to Army documents. After the invasion, the U.S. set its goal at the end of 2005.

Now there's no end in sight, and Bush administration officials have become cautions about suggesting any precise timeframe for a withdrawal. On Wednesday, President Bush declined to set a timetable for bringing American forces home and said he hoped allied forces would also stay the course.

"Our troops will come home when Iraq is capable of defending herself," he told reporters.

Meanwhile Thursday, the military's top general gave his most optimistic public assessment of progress in Iraq, saying the insurgency shows signs of slipping as the U.S.-led international effort gains momentum in building Iraqi security forces.

During a visit to an Iraq police training base in Jordan, Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in recalling his stop Monday in Iraq, "I came away more positive than I've ever been."