New poll shows Carnahan trailing Talent

ST. LOUIS -- Sen. Jean Carnahan is trailing Republican Jim Talent in a recent poll for a U.S. Senate race that is too close to call.

The Zogby International poll, conducted last week for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, shows Mrs. Carnahan, D-Mo., trailing Talent 40.8 percent to 47.3 percent.

The poll surveyed 800 likely Missouri voters Wednesday through Friday. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby said the results reflect "a seismic shift" in voter sentiment because the two candidates' numbers are almost reverse of what they were in the late September poll. Then, 47.6 percent backed Mrs. Carnahan while 40.3 percent favored Talent. That poll had a slightly greater margin of error.

The latest poll found that 52.1 percent thought it was "time for someone new" in the Senate. Only 40.2 percent said Mrs. Carnahan deserved to be elected to the final four years of the term.

Talent's improvement stems largely from two key factors:

He gained the advantage among male voters, who preferred Talent by a 16-point margin. A month ago, men were almost evenly split between the candidates.

He dramatically slashed Carnahan's lead among women. Likely female voters polled were almost evenly split, a switch from last month's poll, which showed Carnahan enjoying a 16-point advantage.

The change may reflect Talent's recent focus on women, in his ads and in his campaign events. Carnahan, meanwhile, has been playing down the gender issue because she's been trying to improve her standing with male voters, who had appeared cool to her in earlier polls.

Meanwhile, in the Missouri auditor's race, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, a Democrat, holds almost a 2-to-1 lead over Republican Al Hanson, who has been disavowed by his own party because he is a convicted felon.