New monster rocket engine to blast off next week in battle for

A powerful new rocket that can produce more energy than nearly a dozen Hoover dams is slated to blast off from Cape Canaveral next week, launching in earnest the biggest battle yet for supremacy of space.

In a competition worth as much as $40 billion over the next 20 years, archrivals Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. have developed rockets intended to dominate the launch business for satellites and other payloads.

The new rocket designs are leading to the most significant overhaul of the U.S. launch complex since the 1950s, when aerospace companies began designing ballistic missiles to deliver warheads.

The continued reliance on the old rocket technology has cost the United States leadership in the commercial launch business in the past decade, as Western Europe, China and Russia moved aggressively into the market.

After many false starts, the United States finally has two new rocket models, both boasting more power than any rocket developed since the Saturn V launched three men to the moon more than three decades ago.

High stakes

In recent decades, the Pentagon and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency have both faltered in efforts to create advanced technology space launchers that would dramatically reduce costs. Former NASA chief Dan Goldin lamented to Congress in 1996 that the space community "should hang its head in shame" over its failure to protect U.S. leadership in space.

Lockheed is taking the first shot next Wednesday to redress that record with the launch of its Atlas V rocket. Meanwhile, Boeing is scheduled to launch its Delta IV rocket in October.

The stakes are astronomical, threatening to leave the loser a bit player in the space business. The companies, the nation's two top defense contractors, have invested more than $2.5 billion in developing the rockets.

Just five years ago, Lockheed had three-fourths of the government launch business, mainly to ferry military and spy satellites into space. Lockheed rockets now account for only a quarter of the launches, analysts said.

"They clearly have a lot riding on this launch," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a defense and aerospace research firm. "If it goes flawlessly, it can help out with future government buys and have a big impact on commercial sales. If it blows up, it will continue Lockheed's reversal of fortune." Both Lockheed and Boeing face stiff technical challenges. Nearly 80 percent of all first launches of new rockets either blow up during lift-off or find themselves in the wrong orbit. Boeing, for example, suffered back-to-back failures of its previous new rocket, the Delta III in the last three years and was forced to pay for a third launch just to show it could get off the ground.

Lockheed officials boast they have the industry's best record, having successfully flown five versions of the older Atlas models on their first attempts.

In fact, the commercial market for launch vehicles collapsed with the tanking of the telecommunications industry, leaving the U.S. government as the main customer. Analysts said commercial rocket launches fell by more than 50 percent since 1999, but they appear to be inching up again after hitting bottom last year.

At the same time, both Asian and European countries have been stepping up development of launch vehicles vying to take a bigger piece of the world's rocket market. Boeing and Lockheed still launch more rockets - including mililtary missions - than anyone else but Arianespace, the French aerospace firm, is closing in and now holds the market for launching commercial satellites into high orbits.

Neither U.S. company is expected to see much profit from the new rockets until later in the decade when commercial demand is expected to recover, analysts said.

"Profits are downstream," said Marshall Kaplan, a former rocket engineer who is now director of space programs for Strategic Insight Ltd. "They are going to be in the red so deeply, it's going to take a while to be profitable." Lockheed officials also say the design and the manufacturing process for the Atlas V is significantly different than from previous generations of rockets. For instance, Atlas has been designed to launch even when winds reach up to 61 knots. Strong winds have been a persistent bane for rocket launches.

With the exception of a hurricane, Lockheed said the rocket could fly at any time and weather, raising its prospects for commercial customers who pay for costly delay in launches.

Meanwhile, Boeing has invested about $1.5 billion in the program. It built new launch pads at Cape Canaveral and at Vandenberg Air Force Base, as well as a new manufacturing facility in Decatur, Ala. Boeing also elected to develop a new rocket engine, the first in three decades.

The engine for the Delta IV, dubbed RS-68 produces 653,000 pounds of thrust or enough to light up 17 million homes for a short time, Delta program chief Daniel J. Collins said, noting that it is the first new engine developed in the United States since the Space Shuttle.