NEW GLOBAL WARMING REPORT: U.N. PANEL SAYS TEMPERATURES MAY RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED

Under the worst scenario for global warming, a Cape Girardeau home could someday become oceanfront property. But the dangers of crop failure and glaciers eroding from soaring temperatures would offset that benefit.

The theory that greenhouse gases are trapping some of the energy of the sun, raising temperatures and melting polar icecaps, is not universally accepted by scientists. But a recent study by the United Nations raises the stakes of the debate. It says the problem could be progressing more rapidly than previously estimated.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released last month said global temperatures could continue to rise by as much as 10.5 degrees over the next century -- sharply higher than the 2.5 to 5.5 degrees that was previously estimated.

Sir John T. Houghton, former director of Britain's weather agency, told the Associated Press, "The rate of climate change this century is expected to be greater than it has been in the past 10,000 years."

The report said poor countries would bear the brunt of devastating changes as a result of global warming. But it warned that the rich wouldn't be immune, with Florida and parts of the American Atlantic coast likely to be lashed by storms and rising sea levels.

"Most of the Earth's people will be on the losing side," Harvard University environmental scientist James J. McCarthy, who co-chaired the panel, said.

The report, authored by scientists from 99 countries, said new research shows these rising temperatures are the result of industrial pollution, not changes in the sun or other natural causes.

Local reaction

Alan Journet, Southeast Missouri State University professor of biology, agreed with the findings.

"There are folks who try to convince people there is conflicting information regarding global warming, but there really isn't," he said.

What clouds the issue is that the most severe impacts of global warming could be a long way into the future, when most people currently alive have died, said Journet. "But if we don't care about the state of the planet for future generations, we have lost all moral responsibility."

Al Robertson, a retired Southeast professor of climatology, was skeptical of Houghton's claim.

"It's a guesstimate, let's face it," said Robertson. "All kinds of things could happen in the next 100 years. The nations involved can pass legislation to curtail it. We could go to all electrical cars. I don't think it's accelerating at the rate that they're guesstimating."

The United States Environmental Protection Agency reports that over the last century, while the average temperature in Jefferson City, Mo., has decreased one-half of 1 degree, precipitation has increased by up to 10 percent in many parts of the state.

Over the next century, the climate in Missouri could continue to change, said the EPA. Some projections indicate that by 2100 temperatures in the state could increase by about 2 degrees in summer and by about 3 degrees in the other seasons. Little change is anticipated for winter precipitation, but increases of about 15 percent are estimated for spring and fall, and the summer increase is estimated to range between 20 and 60 percent.

These climatic changes could mean more heat and mosquito-related illnesses within the state, adaptation difficulties for farmers and a decline in forests, said the EPA.

For Missourians, said Journet, "The point is that the forests we depend on for our fiber are climate-dependent, and all of our agricultural systems are climate-dependent. If we get a change here in climate, then things that grow here can't grow here anymore in an extreme case."

"I think in the last 20 years or so, we've blown off the problem as not being real," said Bob Reeves, weathercaster for KFVS-12. "I tend to come down on the side that it is a serious potential problem. I don't know who's right. I don't think anybody knows for sure yet. But if we blow it off, the potential consequences could be devastating."

Across the planet, mean temperatures have increased 0.6 to 1.2 degrees between 1890 and 1996, according to the EPA.

Kilimanjaro ice melting

Monday, the Associated Press reported the white ice atop Africa's Mount Kilimanjaro may be disappearing the victim of a process shrinking mountain glaciers everywhere.

A survey completed last year found 82 percent of the ice field that existed on Kilimanjaro in 1912 has melted, said Lonnie Thompson, an Ohio State University researcher.

"The ice will be gone by 2015 or so," predicted Thompson, who has studied the worldwide decline of mountain glaciers.

Mountain glaciers in Tibet and Peru are also in rapid retreat. Measurements taken in the Andes mountains of Peru show that a glacier was melting back at about 12 feet a year in 1978. New measurements taken last year show that the retreat has accelerated to more than 500 feet a year.

On a glacier in Tibet, measurements taken since 1955 show that the average air temperatures is rising by a half degree per decade. The warming is accompanied by a dramatic melt of the glacier, said Thompson.

The melting of equatorial glaciers in Peru and Africa are a powerful indication of global warming, said Thompson.

"The tropical glaciers are the most sensitive sites on Earth to show change," he said. His research suggests that the snow line, the point on tropical mountains where water is permanently frozen, is climbing higher and higher.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.