NEW BOOK FOCUSES ON QUAKE THEORIES;. SCOTT CITY AUTHOR EXPLORES THEORIES

SCOTT CITY -- In 1987, Scott City historian, archaeologist, geologist and author Edison Shrum published a book titled "The Real New Madrid Earthquake." In it he warned readers that he was about to attack some sacred geological beliefs about earthquakes.

Now Shrum, 77, has published another book that's sure to attract even more attention and disdain from the established scientific community.

The book is titled "Solar Blast Clouds, Magnetic Storms, Auroras, Earthquakes and the Weather." The 140-page hard-cover book is the 16th in a series of publications that have dealt with everything from the social history of Southeast Missouri to its geological roots.

In his latest book, Shrum says there are different types of earthquakes that are caused by totally different circumstances. Shrum claims that if science is ever going to be able to predict when earthquakes will occur, it must realize that earthquakes are not caused by the movement of faults or continental and oceanic plates.

"The fault theory has taken on a life of its own," said Shrum. "It is a result of, and nothing more. It is not the root cause of earthquakes and has nothing to do with being able to predict earthquakes. As a result, most of the research up to now has been wasted. I say we should be investigating the theories and phenomenon I have written about in the book."

Shrum said he hopes the book will stimulate others to carry on with the investigation and research after he is gone.

Although Shrum claims to have successfully predicted in the last 50 years a number of earthquakes based on his own research, he emphasizes that he is no Iben Browning. It was Browning who set off a near panic in the Midwest in late 1990 with a projection that a good chance of an earthquake might occur somewhere in the same latitude as the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Nothing occurred.

"I have made successful predictions on many occasions, but they are not consistent, and you must be able to make consistent predictions," said Shrum.

Shrum said it's difficult to develop a single method of forecasting earthquakes because there are different types of quakes and each requires specific methods to predict their occurrence. He said others have touched on that idea, but none have followed through.

As an example, Shrum said Myron Fuller, in his 1912 U.S. Geological Survey bulletin, "The New Madrid Earthquake," mentions eerie light flashes and a glow that were seen during and before some of the more severe series of shocks in 1811-1812.

Shrum believes the so-called earthquake lights seen in other regions of the Earth at the time of earthquakes coincide with major sunspot activity on the sun, which results in major solar storms or solar blasts that create widespread disruptions in Earth's magnetic field. He believes the magnetic disturbances create erratic movements in Earth's molten core, which is highly susceptible to magnetic disturbances. It is the movements of the molten core that may trigger major earthquakes, according to Shrum's theory.

Shrum said it was the brilliant display of the Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights) in this area on March 24, 1991, that prompted him to start working on the new book. Shrum said movement of the molten core or magma toward Earth's crust as a result of the disturbances in Earth's magnetic field may actually trigger this particular type of earthquake. "Usually earthquakes associated with disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field are more severe than the other types," he said.

Another phenomenon Shrum theorizes may produce small earthquakes and tremors is what is known as isostatic adjustment. That occurs when either a great load is lifted or compressed on a part of the Earth. As an example, he cites a 1937 newspaper article in which an official of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey stated that a series of minor earthquakes occurring near the newly-constructed Boulder Dam may be caused by the impoundment of water in Lake Mead behind the dam. A copy of the article is in Shrum's book to back up his isostatic adjustment theory.

"Earthquakes are not just faults or plates moving side by side or horizontally. They can be caused by compression or decompression of the Earth by major flooding," he said. As an example, Shrum cited the flood of 1937; that same year two earthquakes occurred in Southeast Missouri on Jan. 30 and Feb. 8.

"Not only was there a great flood under way at the time, accompanied by much regional overflow, but the fuse plugs on the 131,000-acre Mississippi-New Madrid Floodway were blown on Jan. 26, 1937, resulting in a rapid increase in the weight of water, sand and gravel bearing down on this already water-saturated area," Shrum said, "The weight of all this water and sediment have been reliably estimated to have totaled a billion tons, all put in place in a period of only a few days."

Shrum admits that his theories on the causes of earthquakes, if not radical or controversial, break new ground on questions surrounding earthquake research and prediction.

"What all of this should prove is that earthquakes are not the result of any single event. They can be caused by a number of natural or even man-made events. I'm saying in the book, if we are going to predict when earthquakes will occur, we must do a lot more research. My problem is that I am an old man with limited funds to do that research. However, I believe that I am far enough along so that anyone who reads this book can see the proof of what I am saying."

Copies of "Solar Blast Clouds, Magnetic Storms, Auroras, Earthquakes and the Weather" can be obtained by writing to: Edison Shrum, 509 Ruth, Scott City, Mo. 63780, or by calling 1-314-264-4950.