N. Korea's subdued demeanor surprises

SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea has surprised many by hunkering down instead of taking advantage of Washington's preoccupation with Iraq to further its nuclear ambitions on the Korean Peninsula.

The subdued behavior leaves observers wondering: Does this signify a change in North Korean diplomacy? Or is Pyongyang just waiting for the Iraq war to end before pushing the standoff further -- or bringing it to a close?

"North Korea will be in a dilemma right now as to what it should do next," said Paik Hak-soon, a political analyst at the Seoul-based Sejong Institute research center.

Though the North has issued some of its characteristic bombastic statements in recent days, there is less talk of nuclear war in the communist state's media. More importantly, South Korea says there has been no sign the North started reprocessing spent fuel rods that could yield enough plutonium to make several nuclear bombs.

Observers say pictures of U.S. tanks and warplanes rolling through Iraq may have intimidated North Korea's leaders and may prompt them to seek a peaceful solution to the Korean crisis.

But the images also may reinforce their determination to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

"Watching the war in Iraq on television will scare them. But no one really knows what they will do," a spokesman for South Korea's Unification Ministry said on condition of anonymity.

Tensions have run high in the region since October, when the United States said North Korea admitted having a secret nuclear program in violation of a 1994 pact. The North then kicked out U.N. nuclear inspectors.

Pyongyang will watch closely when the 15-member U.N. Security Council meets Wednesday to discuss North Korea's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The International Atomic Energy Agency, a U.N. body, referred the issue to council in February, saying North Korea was not complying with nuclear safeguard agreements.

The Security Council eventually could discuss imposing sanctions against North Korea if a political solution is not found. China and Russia have said they oppose sanctions and North Korea has warned that it would regard such a move as a declaration of war.

On Tuesday, the permanent Security Council members -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France -- failed to agree on a statement condemning North Korea's nuclear program because of opposition from China.

North Korea has accused the United States of planning to invade after the war in Iraq. President Bush has said he wants to resolve the crisis peacefully, but he also insists "all options" are still on the table concerning a nation he once said was part of an "axis of evil" with Iran and Iraq.

The United States sent F-117A stealth fighters to South Korea as a deterrent and recently dispatched a dozen B-52 bombers and a dozen B-1 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam as a precautionary move.

The nimble F-117As are capable of quickly taking out the Yongbyon nuclear reactor -- an attack North Korea has accused Washington of plotting. North Korea insists the 5-megawatt reactor is needed to produce electricity.

South Korea has been trying to ease tensions, but its efforts suffered a setback this week when the North failed to hold scheduled inter-Korean Cabinet-level talks in Pyongyang.

At a meeting Tuesday of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Manila, Philippines, South Korea distributed a confidential briefing paper on the crisis saying the world must prepare for North Korea to try to escalate tensions. It also said the South believes the crisis can be resolved peacefully, according to a copy made available to The Associated Press.

North Korea repeatedly has refused to hold multilateral talks on the nuclear crisis. It insists on direct meetings with the United States to negotiate a nonaggression treaty -- something Washington so far has refused to do.

The Asia Foundation's representative in South Korea, Scott Snyder, said a pre-emptive U.S. strike on the North likely would end the 50-year alliance between Washington and Seoul. The United States has 37,000 troops in the South and has stationed forces there since the 1950-1953 Korean War.

"(But) there are some people who feel that if that option can keep nuclear weapons out of North Korea's hands, then it is one that should be considered, even if it did end the alliance," Snyder said.

Soon after the war started in Iraq, South Korea put its troops on a heightened alert. This, and the monthlong South Korea-U.S. war games that ended last week, may have deterred Northern military actions recently, observers say.

The last serious provocation was March 2, when four North Korean fighter jets briefly intercepted a U.S. military surveillance plane. It was allowed to go on its way.

North Korea's main ally, China, is widely believed to have pressured Pyongyang recently not to worsen the nuclear dispute.