Missouri race between Carnahan, Talent is national priority

WASHINGTON -- In the struggle for control of the U.S. Senate, Missouri's closely watched race pits a seasoned challenger against an incumbent with just 16 months of experience.

They are campaigning for a seat that changed hands in bizarre fashion two years ago. Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan died in a plane crash while campaigning against then-Sen. John Ashcroft, but voters chose Carnahan anyway, knowing his widow would serve.

Jean Carnahan had just lost her husband as well as her oldest son, but because she was appointed to a temporary, two-year term, she had to work quickly to establish a record and set up a campaign.

Republicans had to move just as quickly to find a challenger and by last summer had recruited Jim Talent, a former congressman who very narrowly lost the 2000 race for governor.

"I think my record shows I know how to make the Congress work," says Talent, who served eight years in the U.S. House after eight years in the Missouri legislature.

Carnahan counters that some people spend their lives running for office, but "that's not the only kind of experience."

Campaigns in a handful of states will determine the Senate majority, which Democrats gained earlier this year when Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords' switched from Republican to independent and joined forces with the Democrats.

Observers are calling Missouri a toss-up. John Petrocik, who chairs the University of Missouri political science department, says Carnahan lacks some assets that incumbents traditionally have, while Talent has some advantages that other challengers lack.

"Mrs. Carnahan has only been around for two years; she doesn't have the reservoir of support that incumbents normally receive. She doesn't have a long track record in the state," Petrocik says. "Add to that that Jim Talent is a well-known political figure, so he doesn't have the kind of uphill climb this early in the race that most challengers have. Add to that Missouri's political climate, and you've got a close race."

Bush won Missouri in 2000 with a margin of 3 percent, but the other Republicans lost, Ashcroft by 2 percent and Talent by fewer than 1 percent. Pollsters for Talent and Carnahan say that likewise, this race looks close, with few voters undecided.

Until this month, the two have been reluctant to engage directly. Instead, the state political parties have traded blows, with Democrats accusing Talent of using lucrative jobs and political work to evade contribution limits and Republicans accusing advocacy groups that regularly demonstrate against Talent of doing Carnahan's bidding in violation of federal tax law.

Priority state

Missouri is a priority for both political parties. President Bush visited last month, appearing with Talent at a St. Louis fund-raising dinner, and has dispatched cabinet members and advisers to Missouri, too.

"They just like me, they don't care about the race," Talent said, joking in an interview.

In seriousness, he says there is no denying the national implications, but that his interest goes beyond party control.

"I believe I can be a good senator for the people of Missouri for a long time, for five or 10 or 15 years down the road, if people want, and I have the experience to know how to make the system work," he says, mentioning his work on bipartisan welfare reform and anti-poverty measures. "And I think the Senate needs that now. It's not functioning well. Good bills are getting buried."

Carnahan has gotten help from national party leaders, too, as evidenced by the $5.57 million she has raised, compared to Talent's $3.1 million. Newly released fund-raising reports show that he got slightly more funds from January through March, pulling in about $1.33 million to Carnahan's $1.27 million.