MISSOURI POLLS: ASHCROFT, CARNAHAN ARE NECK AND NECK

With the general election four months away, incumbent Sen. John Ashcroft is clinging to a narrow lead over Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, a new poll by The Kansas City Star shows.

Ashcroft, a Republican, is leading Carnahan by 47 percent to 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided. With the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race stands as a statistical dead heat.

"It may not be decided until the end," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, which conducted the survey. "There's a lot of drama to be played out." One mistake by either candidate could tip the balance, he said.

The dynamics of the race have changed little since a Mason-Dixon poll in February. At that point, Ashcroft had 47 percent to Carnahan's 44 percent. Nine percent were undecided.

The two have been banging heads since the day after the 1998 November election, when Carnahan declared his challenge.The race's stability may be due to the popularity of both candidates in Missouri.

Carnahan, the two-term governor, also is a former state treasurer and lieutenant governor. Ashcroft served two terms as attorney general and two more as governor in the years before Carnahan won the governorship in 1992.

Only 2 percent of voters said they did not recognize Ashcroft's name. One percent said they were unfamiliar with Carnahan.

"The voters know these guys," Coker said.

The telephone survey of 624 registered Missouri voters who said they vote regularly was taken from last Thursday to Monday. The results were similar to a poll released this week by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., that showed Ashcroft leading Carnahan 47 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent unsure.

Carnahan spokesman Tony Wyche said the race would come down to a "choice of Mel Carnahan's record of accomplishment ... on issues important to working families vs. John Ashcroft's record of voting against the interests of Missouri's working families."

Ashcroft's campaign manager, David Ayres, shot back that his campaign was gaining in the polls "until Carnahan's false negative ads scaring senior citizens hurt us." Those ads, which have been running since late June in St. Louis, but not in Kansas City, criticize Ashcroft's record on Social Security and Medicare.

"Carnahan's liberal groups from Washington are pouring money into Missouri to assault Ashcroft," Ayres said. "We expect to be outspent and attacked daily by Carnahan and liberal special interest groups throughout this campaign." Speaking to reporters in Jefferson City, Carnahan said the ads running in St. Louis examine Ashcroft's votes, "and that is totally legitimate." Voters view both men with about the same amount of favor and disfavor. Ashcroft's favorability rating was 47 percent. Twenty-seven percent viewed him unfavorably.

Carnahan's numbers: 44 percent positive, 28 percent negative.

The poll showed that Ashcroft was leading by an average of 20 points in three regions of the state: central Missouri and in the state's southeast and southwest corners.